UFC 307: Fight Predictions & In-Depth Analysis

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As the UFC returns to Salt Lake City, Utah, for another thrilling event, fight fans and bettors alike are gearing up for UFC 307. This card promises an action-packed night with 12 bouts, featuring a blend of seasoned veterans and rising prospects. With fighters looking to climb the rankings or secure career-defining victories, each contest brings its own set of intriguing questions and potential surprises. The stakes are high for everyone stepping into the octagon, and that means the betting landscape is just as exciting as the fights themselves.

For bettors looking to gain an edge and enthusiasts eager for in-depth fight breakdowns, we’ve compiled a detailed analysis of each matchup on this card. We’ll break down each fighter’s strengths and weaknesses, recent performances, and stylistic tendencies to offer insights on who is most likely to emerge victorious.

Event Details:

  • Date/Time: Saturday, October 5, 2024, at 6:30 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: Pay-Per-View
  • Preliminary Card: ESPN+
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: Delta Center
  • Location: Salt Lake City, Utah, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • MMA Bouts: 12

In today’s post, we’ll break down each fight, analyze stylistic matchups, and provide our predictions for each bout. But more importantly, we’ll dive deep into how we arrive at these conclusions using an approach that blends data-driven insights with an understanding of the intricacies of mixed martial arts.

Why Predicting UFC Fights is Both Science and Art

UFC fight predictions are not as simple as looking at fighter records or picking the favorite based on name value. In MMA, any fighter can win on any given night due to the unpredictable nature of the sport. Knockouts, submissions, and decisions can all hinge on a single moment of brilliance or a slight miscalculation. Therefore, a more holistic approach is necessary, blending data, statistics, recent form, and stylistic matchups.

Key Metrics in MMA Predictions:

  1. Recent Form and Fight Activity: A fighter’s last 3-5 fights tell us how they’ve been performing. Are they in a winning streak, or have they been struggling? What kind of opponents have they been facing? Fighters like Alex Pereira, for example, have recently moved to the light heavyweight division and come into UFC 307 with high expectations, while others might be making a return after injury or layoff, which could affect their form.
  2. Fighter Styles and Game Plans: MMA is a complex mix of striking, grappling, and clinching. Some fighters like Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson rely on pinpoint striking and distance management, while others like Kayla Harrison rely on wrestling and grappling dominance. Analyzing how two styles match up is crucial for determining the likely outcome. Does the striker have good takedown defense? Can the grappler close the distance without eating too many strikes?
  3. Durability and Fight IQ: Understanding how fighters handle adversity is essential. Some fighters can withstand heavy damage and keep moving forward, while others may crumble when they face resistance. A fighter’s durability and ability to execute under pressure often decide fights.
  4. Fighter Conditioning and Pace: The UFC’s fight structure is either three or five rounds, depending on the bout. Fighters with high cardio and pace, such as Raquel Pennington, tend to have an edge in later rounds, while power punchers like Joaquin Buckley often look to finish fights early due to potential cardio issues.
  5. Venue and Altitude: Since UFC 307 takes place in Salt Lake City, the altitude could play a significant role in how fighters perform, especially those coming from sea level. Fighters with better conditioning will have a distinct advantage in this environment.

How We Use Data to Make Predictions

At Hack the Spread, our UFC predictions are powered by a combination of Monte Carlo simulations, historical fight data, and fight-specific analysis. Monte Carlo simulations allow us to run thousands of hypothetical outcomes based on fighter stats, such as striking accuracy, defense, grappling success rates, and more.

We also take into account the psychological aspects of each fight. Are there reports of injuries or poor weight cuts? Has one fighter been overly emotional or calm during fight week? While these factors are more difficult to quantify, they can significantly impact a fight’s outcome.

With this data-driven and psychological approach, let’s dive into the individual fights and how we arrived at our predictions.

Main Event: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (Light Heavyweight)

Alex Pereira is best known for his time as a middleweight, where he captured the championship and had some memorable battles with Israel Adesanya. However, moving up to light heavyweight, Pereira has carried his world-class striking power with him. Pereira’s background as a former kickboxing champion gives him an edge in striking exchanges, and he’s proven time and again that he can shut down opponents with his pinpoint precision.

Khalil Rountree Jr., on the other hand, has also found new life at light heavyweight after some inconsistent years. His explosive power and unorthodox striking have allowed him to rack up a few notable finishes, but his biggest issue remains his inconsistency and lack of versatility. Rountree is dangerous in the early rounds but tends to slow down as the fight progresses, and his defensive flaws make him susceptible to getting countered by sharp strikers like Pereira.

Prediction: Alex Pereira via TKO (Round 2)

  • Confidence: High (61.28%)
  • Pereira’s accuracy and timing should prove too much for the hittable Rountree. A knockout seems highly likely in the middle rounds when Rountree begins to slow.

Co-Main Event: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña (Bantamweight)

Raquel Pennington has quietly been one of the most consistent fighters in the bantamweight division. Known for her toughness, cardio, and well-rounded skills, Pennington has built a reputation as a difficult opponent for anyone at 135 pounds. In her recent outings, she’s shown improved striking defense and grappling, which could be key against Peña.

Julianna Peña is coming off a long layoff, which could impact her form. Peña is a grinder with a strong grappling base, but she’s prone to taking damage on the feet. If this fight remains standing, Pennington should have the edge in terms of volume and defensive prowess. Peña’s grappling could give her a chance, but she might struggle to implement her game plan if Pennington is able to stuff the takedowns.

Prediction: Raquel Pennington via Decision

  • Confidence: Medium (57.66%)
  • Pennington’s consistency and ability to defend Peña’s grappling give her the edge, especially in the later rounds.

José Aldo vs. Mario Bautista (Featherweight)

José Aldo, a legend of the sport, is looking to extend his career with another impressive performance. Although Aldo is past his prime, he’s still a dangerous striker with a sharp fight IQ. His leg kicks, body shots, and ability to control range make him a difficult opponent for anyone.

Mario Bautista is a rising prospect, but the challenge of facing a fighter with Aldo’s experience may be too much too soon. Bautista has a well-rounded game, but he hasn’t faced anyone with Aldo’s skill set or experience in high-level competition.

Prediction: José Aldo via Decision

  • Confidence: Medium (53.97%)
  • Aldo’s ability to dictate the pace and pick his shots will likely lead to a decision win, although Bautista’s durability should keep him in the fight.

Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland (Middleweight)

This fight pits two explosive but inconsistent fighters against each other. Roman Dolidze has strong grappling and heavy hands but often struggles to put everything together consistently. Kevin Holland is an unpredictable striker with a lengthy reach and dangerous knockout power, but his grappling defense has been a liability in the past.

If Holland can keep this fight standing, his length and striking should give him the advantage. However, Dolidze’s path to victory is clear—get the fight to the ground and work for a submission or control time. The question remains: can Dolidze execute his game plan effectively against a dynamic and unpredictable fighter like Holland?

Prediction: Kevin Holland via TKO

  • Confidence: Low (52.22%)
  • Holland’s striking power and range could catch Dolidze, but this fight is a coin flip due to both fighters’ inconsistency.

Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira (Women’s Featherweight)

Kayla Harrison, a two-time Olympic judo gold medalist, enters this fight as a heavy favorite. Known for her elite grappling and submission game, Harrison has been dominant in her MMA career. She’s fought bigger and stronger opponents, but her technical superiority on the ground usually leads to quick finishes.

Ketlen Vieira is a solid fighter with decent striking and grappling defense, but she has yet to face someone with the kind of grappling credentials Harrison brings to the octagon. Vieira’s path to victory lies in keeping the fight standing, but it’s hard to see her doing that consistently over three rounds.

Prediction: Kayla Harrison via Submission

  • Confidence: High (57.32%)
  • Harrison’s grappling advantage should allow her to control Vieira and secure a submission victory.

Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight)

This fight is a classic striker versus power puncher matchup. Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is known for his incredible striking accuracy, distance management, and fight IQ. Even at 41 years old, Thompson has shown that his style is difficult to solve, especially for aggressive, power-focused fighters.

Joaquin Buckley is an explosive knockout artist who’s made a name for himself with highlight-reel finishes. Buckley will need to close the distance and land big shots early to have any chance in this fight. The problem is that Thompson’s ability to control range makes him a tough target for wild power punchers.

Prediction: Stephen Thompson via Decision

  • Confidence: Low (50.05%)
  • Thompson’s experience and fight IQ should allow him to outpoint Buckley, but Buckley’s power is a constant threat.

Today’s Picks

Conclusion

As we approach UFC 307 in Salt Lake City, it’s clear that this event has the potential for some thrilling fights, particularly with stylistic matchups that could lead to explosive finishes or closely contested decisions. Whether you’re a fight fan or a bettor, understanding the intricacies of these matchups is crucial to gaining an edge.

From Alex Pereira’s pinpoint striking to Kayla Harrison’s grappling dominance, the night will likely feature a variety of methods of victory. The betting landscape also offers some intriguing opportunities, particularly for those who pay close attention to fighter tendencies, recent form, and venue factors like altitude.

As always, our predictions aim to be as accurate as possible using a combination of data-driven simulations and fight analysis. Whether you’re looking to place bets or just enjoy the night’s action, we hope this breakdown helps you better understand the intricacies of UFC 307.