JUMP TO PICKS

Welcome to HackTheSpread, where technology meets the octagon. This week, we’re diving into UFC 305, which promises to be an explosive night of fights on Saturday, August 17, 2024, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Whether you’re an MMA fanatic, a casual fan, or a betting enthusiast, we’ve crunched the numbers, analyzed the data, and are ready to deliver the most informed predictions for this epic event.

Where and When to Watch UFC 305

Main Card Breakdown

Dricus Du Plessis (c) vs. Israel Adesanya – Middleweight Title Bout

This main event is a middleweight clash that’s been brewing ever since Dricus Du Plessis claimed the title. Du Plessis, known for his aggressive style and knockout power, has bulldozed his way through the division, but he faces his toughest challenge yet in Israel Adesanya.

Dricus Du Plessis comes into this fight with momentum. The South African has shown resilience and power, with an impressive ability to finish fights. However, his aggressive nature sometimes leaves him open to counterattacks, which could be his undoing against a striker as polished as Adesanya.

Israel Adesanya, the former champion, is a striking savant with an unmatched ability to control distance and pace. Known as “The Last Stylebender,” Adesanya’s kickboxing pedigree and ability to switch stances fluidly make him a nightmare for any opponent. Despite Du Plessis’ power, Adesanya’s technical prowess and fight IQ should allow him to neutralize Du Plessis’ aggressive style. Adesanya’s previous fights against power punchers like Paulo Costa and Robert Whittaker have shown his ability to avoid danger while delivering pinpoint strikes.

Prediction: Israel Adesanya by TKO/KO. We have high confidence (85%) in Adesanya’s ability to regain the middleweight crown, most likely via a striking finish in the middle rounds.

Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg – Flyweight Bout

Kai Kara-France is a staple of the flyweight division, known for his durability and well-rounded game. He’s been in the octagon with the best in the world, holding his own against elite competition. His striking is crisp, and his ability to mix in takedowns when necessary makes him a difficult puzzle to solve.

Steve Erceg is relatively new to the UFC, but he’s already shown promise with his grappling-heavy style. Erceg is tenacious and constantly hunts for submissions, but against someone as seasoned and versatile as Kara-France, he may struggle to impose his will.

Kara-France’s experience should give him the edge in this matchup. He has faced grapplers before and has the takedown defense and striking to keep the fight where he wants it. Erceg might look to drag the fight to the mat, but Kara-France’s ability to scramble and return to his feet should keep him out of danger.

Prediction: Kai Kara-France by decision. With high confidence (80%), we see Kara-France controlling the pace and outpointing Erceg over three rounds.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker – Lightweight Bout

This lightweight bout pits two fan favorites against each other. Mateusz Gamrot is a relentless grappler with a high pace. His wrestling is among the best in the division, and he has shown the ability to chain takedowns together, wearing down opponents with constant pressure.

Dan Hooker, on the other hand, is a seasoned striker known for his toughness and knockout power. Hooker has been in some of the most memorable wars in the lightweight division, showing a granite chin and a willingness to trade in the pocket. However, his struggles have come against fighters who can neutralize his striking with wrestling – something Gamrot excels at.

While Hooker has a puncher’s chance, the data points towards Gamrot being able to smother him with takedowns and top control. If Gamrot can avoid prolonged exchanges on the feet, he should be able to grind out a decision victory.

Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot by decision. Our medium confidence (75%) in Gamrot’s wrestling and control is based on Hooker’s past struggles against grapplers of Gamrot’s caliber.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik – Heavyweight Bout

This heavyweight clash promises fireworks. Tai Tuivasa, known for his fan-favorite shoey celebrations, is a knockout artist who thrives in chaotic exchanges. His power and durability have made him a must-watch fighter in the heavyweight division.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik is equally dangerous, with a striking background that has earned him numerous knockout victories. Rozenstruik tends to be more methodical, waiting for the perfect moment to unleash his powerful counter-strikes. However, this patience can sometimes work against him, as seen in his losses where he was outpaced by more active fighters.

Tuivasa’s brawling style might play into Rozenstruik’s counter-striking, but if Tuivasa can pressure Rozenstruik and force him to fight off his back foot, he could find the chin he’s looking for. The data leans towards Tuivasa’s aggression overwhelming Rozenstruik, leading to a knockout finish.

Prediction: Tai Tuivasa by TKO/KO. We have medium confidence (70%) in Tuivasa’s ability to land a fight-ending shot.

Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates – Welterweight Bout

Li Jingliang is a veteran of the welterweight division, known for his heavy hands and ability to finish fights. He’s faced top competition and brings a wealth of experience into this bout. His striking is sharp, and he has shown the ability to take damage and keep moving forward.

Carlos Prates is a relative newcomer, stepping into the octagon against a seasoned fighter in Li. Prates has a solid all-around game but lacks the high-level experience that Li possesses. This could be a significant factor in a fight where every mistake can be costly.

Li’s experience, combined with his knockout power, makes him a favorite in this matchup. Prates will need to fight a near-perfect fight to avoid the traps that Li will set on the feet. The most likely outcome is Li finding a home for his right hand and ending the fight before the final bell.

Prediction: Li Jingliang by TKO/KO. We’re confident (80%) that Li’s experience and power will be too much for Prates.

Preliminary Card Breakdown

Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker – Heavyweight Bout

Opening the preliminary card, Junior Tafa brings his knockout power into a matchup against Valter Walker. Tafa’s aggression and ability to close the distance quickly have made him a dangerous opponent for anyone in the heavyweight division.

Walker, while less experienced, is a dangerous striker in his own right. However, he has yet to face someone with Tafa’s level of aggression and finishing ability. The key for Tafa will be to avoid getting hit cleanly while pushing the pace.

This fight is likely to end early, with Tafa’s power being the decisive factor. Walker may have a puncher’s chance, but Tafa’s forward pressure and ability to land heavy shots give him the upper hand.

Prediction: Junior Tafa by TKO/KO. With medium confidence (65%), we expect Tafa to land a fight-ending shot in the early rounds.

Josh Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos – Featherweight Bout

Josh Culibao is a tough, well-rounded fighter who has shown resilience in his UFC career. He’s facing Ricardo Ramos, a dynamic fighter with a dangerous submission game. Ramos is known for his creativity and ability to find submissions from unusual positions, making him a constant threat on the ground.

Culibao will need to keep the fight standing and avoid engaging in prolonged grappling exchanges with Ramos. If he can do that, he has a good chance of outstriking Ramos and earning a decision victory. However, if Ramos can drag Culibao into his world, a submission could be in the cards.

The data suggests that Ramos’s grappling could be the difference-maker here. If he can get the fight to the ground, his chances of securing a submission are high.

Prediction: Ricardo Ramos by submission. Our medium confidence (60%) reflects the risk of Culibao’s ability to keep the fight standing, but Ramos’s grappling advantage is clear.

**Casey O’

Neill vs. Luana Santos – Women’s Flyweight Bout**
Casey O’Neill is one of the rising stars in the women’s flyweight division. She’s known for her relentless pace, pressure, and cardio, which allows her to overwhelm opponents over three rounds. O’Neill’s striking volume and ability to mix in takedowns make her a formidable opponent for anyone in the division.

Luana Santos is a tough and game fighter, but she may struggle to keep up with the pace that O’Neill sets. Santos will need to find a way to slow O’Neill down, either by landing heavy counters or by controlling the clinch exchanges.

However, O’Neill’s relentless forward pressure and superior cardio are likely to be the deciding factors in this fight. Santos is durable, but O’Neill should be able to outwork her over three rounds.

Prediction: Casey O’Neill by decision. With high confidence (75%), we expect O’Neill’s pace and pressure to carry her to a clear victory on the scorecards.

Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns – Featherweight Bout

Jack Jenkins is a versatile fighter who can adapt to different styles, making him a tough matchup for anyone. In this fight, he’s up against Herbert Burns, who is a dangerous grappler with a knack for finding submissions.

Burns will likely try to get the fight to the ground as quickly as possible, where he can use his Brazilian jiu-jitsu to look for a finish. Jenkins, however, has shown good takedown defense and the ability to keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage.

If Jenkins can avoid the ground game, he should be able to use his striking to outpoint Burns over three rounds. Burns is always dangerous, but Jenkins’ ability to dictate where the fight takes place gives him the edge.

Prediction: Jack Jenkins by decision. We’re going with medium confidence (65%) based on Jenkins’ ability to stay out of Burns’ submission traps and outstrike him on the feet.

Early Preliminary Card Breakdown

Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes – Lightweight Bout

Tom Nolan is a rising prospect in the lightweight division, known for his knockout power and aggressive style. He faces Alex Reyes, a veteran who has had a tough road in the UFC. Reyes has struggled with injuries and inactivity, making this a challenging matchup against a young and hungry fighter like Nolan.

Nolan’s power and pressure are likely to be too much for Reyes, who has shown vulnerabilities in the past. Reyes will need to find a way to survive the early onslaught and drag the fight into deeper waters if he hopes to turn the tide.

However, the data suggests that Nolan’s aggression and finishing ability will lead to an early stoppage.

Prediction: Tom Nolan by TKO/KO. We have high confidence (75%) that Nolan will secure a victory via knockout in the early rounds.

Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn – Welterweight Bout

Song Kenan is a dangerous striker with knockout power in both hands. He’s going up against Ricky Glenn, a veteran with a well-rounded skill set and a wealth of experience in the octagon.

Glenn’s durability and ability to mix up his attacks make him a difficult opponent for anyone. He has the experience to weather the storm and drag Song into deep waters, where he can use his cardio and grappling to take over the fight.

The key for Glenn will be to avoid getting caught early by Song’s power. If he can do that, his chances of winning increase as the fight goes on. Glenn’s experience and ability to adapt mid-fight give him the edge in this matchup.

Prediction: Ricky Glenn by decision. With medium confidence (65%), we expect Glenn to use his experience and well-rounded game to edge out a decision victory.

Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Aguilar – Flyweight Bout

In the flyweight division, Stewart Nicoll takes on Jesus Aguilar. Aguilar is a submission specialist, with a dangerous ground game that has earned him multiple victories. Nicoll, while tough and durable, may struggle to keep the fight standing against a grappler of Aguilar’s caliber.

Aguilar’s path to victory is clear – get the fight to the ground and hunt for a submission. Nicoll’s best chance is to keep the fight standing and try to outstrike Aguilar, but the data points towards Aguilar’s superior grappling being the deciding factor.

Prediction: Jesus Aguilar by submission. We’re confident (70%) in Aguilar’s ability to secure a submission win, especially if he can get the fight to the ground early.

UFC 305 Picks

Final Thoughts

UFC 305 is stacked with exciting matchups that offer a blend of high-stakes title fights and intriguing bouts featuring rising stars. Whether you’re tuning in for the big names or looking to discover the next wave of talent, this card has something for everyone. Our predictions are grounded in detailed analysis and the latest data, giving you the edge whether you’re betting, watching with friends, or just looking to enjoy a great night of fights.

Remember, MMA is unpredictable, and anything can happen once that cage door closes. But with our data-driven insights, you’re equipped with the knowledge to appreciate the subtleties of each matchup. So sit back, grab your favorite fight-night snacks, and enjoy the action!