As the UFC makes its much-anticipated return to St. Louis, the fight card is stacked with intriguing matchups across various weight classes. From heavyweight slugfests to technical lightweight bouts, UFC Fight Night promises a night full of action with potential title implications. Our analysis delves deep into each main card fight, providing a detailed look at the fighters’ strengths, weaknesses, and potential game plans.
Heavyweight Bout: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
Matchup Details:
- Fighters: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
- Predicted Winner: Derrick Lewis
- Confidence of Winner: 7
- Method of Victory: KO/TKO
- Confidence of Method: 8
- GO Distance?: No
- Distance Confidence: 8
- Summary/Rationale:
Derrick Lewis, known for his knockout prowess, brings a significant experience advantage into this bout. With a record of 25-8, his striking force is evident in his 2.63 SLpM rate and his ability to absorb hits with a 2.37 SApM rate. His takedown defense and powerful countering make him a formidable opponent in the stand-up game.
Rodrigo Nascimento, with a more modest 10-1 record, offers a contrasting style characterized by a more balanced approach between striking and grappling, reflected in his 1.5 takedown average. His capability on the ground and in striking exchanges makes him a well-rounded competitor, but facing Lewis’s level of striking may pose a significant challenge.
Lewis’s advantage is his explosive power, particularly effective against opponents with less experience in facing elite-level strikers. His ability to end fights decisively with his striking, combined with Nascimento’s relative inactivity recently, suggests that Lewis can overpower Nascimento before the fight goes the distance.
Welterweight Bout: Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
Matchup Details:
- Fighters: Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
- Predicted Winner: Joaquin Buckley
- Confidence of Winner: 6
- Method of Victory: Decision
- Confidence of Method: 7
- GO Distance?: Yes
- Distance Confidence: 7
- Summary/Rationale:
Joaquin Buckley enters the octagon with a record of 14-4 and is celebrated for his dynamic fighting style and striking capabilities, demonstrated by his high SLpM of 3.84. Buckley’s aggressive striking and mobility make him a tough matchup for any fighter.
Nursulton Ruziboev, on the other hand, sports a 10-2 record and is not to be underestimated with his balanced striking and grappling statistics. His takedown accuracy and striking volume are commendable, but Buckley’s superior agility and experience in high-paced fights give him the edge in what promises to be a closely contested bout.
This fight is likely to be a battle of wills, with Buckley’s striking volume and pressure potentially earning him points to secure a decision victory. The expectation for the fight to go the distance reflects both fighters’ durability and stamina.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Alonzo Menifield vs. Carlos Ulberg
Matchup Details:
- Fighters: Alonzo Menifield vs. Carlos Ulberg
- Predicted Winner: Alonzo Menifield
- Confidence of Winner: 6
- Method of Victory: KO/TKO
- Confidence of Method: 7
- GO Distance?: No
- Distance Confidence: 8
- Summary/Rationale:
Alonzo Menifield boasts a record of 11-2 and is known for his powerful striking and ability to finish fights early, making him a threat from the outset. His average of 2.75 SLpM and significant power make him a formidable opponent in the striking department.
Carlos Ulberg, with a 5-1 record, is relatively new to the UFC but has shown potential with his striking and overall fight IQ. However, Menifield’s experience and power are likely to overwhelm Ulberg, especially if Menifield can control the pace and land significant strikes early.
The prediction of a KO/TKO victory for Menifield is based on his proven ability to capitalize on his striking strengths and the potential for overwhelming Ulberg, who may not have faced such power before in the octagon.
Lightweight Bout: Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rebecki
Matchup Details:
- Fighters: Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rebecki
- Predicted Winner: Mateusz Rebecki
- Confidence of Winner: 8
- Method of Victory: Submission
- Confidence of Method: 6
- GO Distance?: No
- Distance Confidence: 7
- Summary/Rationale:
Carlos Diego Ferreira brings significant experience into this bout with an 18-4 record. His striking (3.57 SLpM) and grappling statistics (2.1 takedown average) make him a versatile fighter. However, Rebecki presents a unique challenge with his 11-1 record and a balanced skill set that includes 3.2 SLpM and a 60% takedown accuracy.
Mateusz Rebecki’s edge in this fight comes from his consistent performance and a slightly superior grappling prowess, as indicated by his takedown and submission averages. Rebecki’s ability to transition from strikes to takedowns can put Ferreira, who is 35 and potentially facing the drawbacks of age, under pressure.
The prediction leans towards Rebecki securing a submission victory. His grappling skills and the ability to maintain a high pace throughout the fight may exploit any fatigue Ferreira shows, especially in the later rounds.
Featherweight Bout: Alex Caceres vs. Sean Woodson
Matchup Details:
- Fighters: Alex Caceres vs. Sean Woodson
- Predicted Winner: Sean Woodson
- Confidence of Winner: 7
- Method of Victory: Decision
- Confidence of Method: 8
- GO Distance?: Yes
- Distance Confidence: 9
- Summary/Rationale:
Alex Caceres is an experienced fighter with a record of 18-12 and is known for his unorthodox striking and agility. However, Sean Woodson, who has a 10-1 record, boasts a significant reach advantage and a higher striking rate (5.2 SLpM) which can be crucial in this matchup.
Woodson’s ability to maintain distance and use his reach effectively allows him to outstrike opponents while minimizing damage (2.5 SApM). Caceres’s willingness to engage and sometimes erratic fight pace could play into Woodson’s strategy of controlling the fight with precision striking from the outside.
This fight is predicted to go the distance, given Woodson’s style of fighting efficiently and not necessarily pushing for finishes, and Caceres’s durability and experience in handling aggressive strikers.
Heavyweight Bout: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne
Matchup Details:
- Fighters: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne
- Predicted Winner: Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Confidence of Winner: 6
- Method of Victory: Decision
- Confidence of Method: 6
- GO Distance?: Yes
- Distance Confidence: 6
- Summary/Rationale:
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, with a 10-2 record, enters this fight as a slight favorite against Robelis Despaigne, who has a 9-1 record. Both fighters show similar striking and grappling statistics, which suggests a potentially close contest.
The slight edge for Cortes-Acosta comes from his ability to maintain a steady output and control the pace of the fight, crucial in the heavyweight division where stamina can be a deciding factor. His ability to manage the distance and use his jab effectively could be key in scoring points over Despaigne.
The expectation that this fight will go the distance reflects both fighters’ ability to absorb punishment and their comparable skill levels, which could lead to a tactical bout where neither fighter is able to secure a finish but instead aims for a decision victory through consistent performance.
Preliminary Card Analysis: UFC Fight Night St. Louis
Lightweight Bout: Chase Hooper vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Matchup Details:
- Fighters: Chase Hooper vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
- Predicted Winner: Chase Hooper
- Confidence of Winner: 5
- Method of Victory: Submission
- Confidence of Method: 7
- GO Distance?: No
- Distance Confidence: 5
- Summary/Rationale:
Chase Hooper, with a record of 11-2-1, is known for his grappling and submission skills, which align well against Viacheslav Borshchev’s striking-focused approach. Borshchev, holding a 10-1 record, has shown vulnerability to ground attacks, which Hooper is likely to exploit.
Hooper’s strategy will likely involve taking the fight to the ground early and maintaining control. Despite being younger and less experienced in striking, his superior submission game gives him an edge, particularly against opponents who are primarily strikers like Borshchev.
The lower confidence in the fight going the distance reflects the potential for Hooper to secure a submission once the fight is on the mat, given Borshchev’s previous difficulties in grappling exchanges.
Lightweight Bout: Terrance McKinney vs. Esteban Ribovics
Matchup Details:
- Fighters: Terrance McKinney vs. Esteban Ribovics
- Predicted Winner: Terrance McKinney
- Confidence of Winner: 7
- Method of Victory: KO/TKO
- Confidence of Method: 6
- GO Distance?: No
- Distance Confidence: 6
- Summary/Rationale:
Terrance McKinney brings a dynamic and explosive style to the octagon, with a record of 12-3. His striking power and agility make him a formidable opponent for Esteban Ribovics, who has a 9-1 record and a balanced fight approach.
McKinney’s ability to deliver powerful shots early and his aggressiveness could overwhelm Ribovics, particularly if he can dictate the pace and land significant strikes quickly. Ribovics has resilience, but McKinney’s striking and pace may prove too much, especially if he can execute his game plan effectively from the start.
The prediction of a KO/TKO victory stems from McKinney’s proven track record of finishing fights early and his aggressive approach, which could catch Ribovics off-guard.
Women’s Strawweight Bout: Tabatha Ricci vs. Tecia Pennington
Matchup Details:
- Fighters: Tabatha Ricci vs. Tecia Pennington
- Predicted Winner: Tecia Pennington
- Confidence of Winner: 6
- Method of Victory: Decision
- Confidence of Method: 7
- GO Distance?: Yes
- Distance Confidence: 8
- Summary/Rationale:
Tabatha Ricci, with a record of 5-1, faces Tecia Pennington, an experienced fighter with an 11-5 record. Pennington’s experience and tactical approach, characterized by her ability to manage fights over the distance, give her an edge.
Ricci is a promising fighter, but Pennington’s superior fight IQ and endurance are likely to prevail. Pennington’s strategy will probably focus on controlling the pace and using her striking to score points, anticipating Ricci’s aggressive attempts.
This bout is predicted to go the distance as Pennington’s experience in enduring tough fights and managing younger, aggressive opponents should come to the fore, likely leading to a decision victory based on control and consistent striking.
Welterweight Bout: Billy Goff vs. Trey Waters
Matchup Details:
- Fighters: Billy Goff vs. Trey Waters
- Predicted Winner: Trey Waters
- Confidence of Winner: 5
- Method of Victory: Decision
- Confidence of Method: 5
- GO Distance?: Yes
- Distance Confidence: 6
- Summary/Rationale:
Billy Goff enters the octagon with an 8-2 record, showing potential with his aggressive style and solid striking. However, Trey Waters, holding a 10-3 record, presents a balanced approach with both striking and grappling capabilities.
The matchup is anticipated to be closely contested, with Waters having a slight edge due to his ability to control the fight tempo and utilize a more strategic approach to scoring points. His experience in handling pressure and making tactical decisions during fights gives him the advantage.
Both fighters have shown durability, suggesting that the bout is likely to go the distance. Waters’ slightly superior tactical acumen and ability to execute a game plan effectively could see him edge out a decision victory.
Flyweight Bout: Charles Johnson vs. Jake Hadley
Matchup Details:
- Fighters: Charles Johnson vs. Jake Hadley
- Predicted Winner: Jake Hadley
- Confidence of Winner: 6
- Method of Victory: Submission
- Confidence of Method: 6
- GO Distance?: No
- Distance Confidence: 7
- Summary/Rationale:
Charles Johnson and Jake Hadley both come into this fight with impressive records, 11-2 and 9-1 respectively. Hadley, known for his grappling prowess and submission skills, is likely to pose significant challenges to Johnson, whose striking and defense are robust but may not fully prepare him for Hadley’s ground game.
Hadley’s strategy will likely focus on bringing the fight to the ground where he can leverage his superior submission techniques. Johnson’s ability to maintain distance and utilize striking may initially pose a challenge, but Hadley’s relentless pursuit of takedowns could ultimately secure him a submission victory.
This fight is not expected to go the distance, primarily due to Hadley’s aggressive approach and proficiency in securing fight-ending submissions once on the ground.
Welterweight Bout: Jared Gooden vs. Kevin Jousset
Matchup Details:
- Fighters: Jared Gooden vs. Kevin Jousset
- Predicted Winner: Jared Gooden
- Confidence of Winner: 7
- Method of Victory: KO/TKO
- Confidence of Method: 6
- GO Distance?: No
- Distance Confidence: 5
- Summary/Rationale:
Jared Gooden, with an 18-6 record, has shown versatility and power in his striking, complemented by solid grappling skills. Kevin Jousset, at 10-2, has also demonstrated proficiency in both striking and grappling, but lacks the same level of experience at the higher levels of competition.
Gooden’s advantage in this fight comes from his proven track record of dealing with diverse fighting styles and his ability to deliver powerful strikes that can lead to a KO/TKO. His experience against tougher opponents and in high-pressure situations should give him the upper hand against Jousset.
The prediction of a finish by KO/TKO reflects Gooden’s striking ability and his likelihood of exploiting any openings in Jousset’s defense, particularly in the exchanges.
Women’s Flyweight Bout: JJ Aldrich vs. Veronica Hardy
Matchup Details:
- Fighters: JJ Aldrich vs. Veronica Hardy
- Predicted Winner: JJ Aldrich
- Confidence of Winner: 7
- Method of Victory: Decision
- Confidence of Method: 8
- GO Distance?: Yes
- Distance Confidence: 8
- Summary/Rationale:
JJ Aldrich brings a record of 10-4 into this fight, showcasing her striking accuracy and tactical approach. Veronica Hardy, with an 8-2 record, is a formidable opponent but lacks the same level of UFC experience as Aldrich.
Aldrich’s strategy typically revolves around using her striking precision and defensive capabilities to control the pace of the fight. Hardy’s approach, while aggressive, may not be sufficient to overcome Aldrich’s technical proficiency.
This bout is expected to go the distance, with Aldrich likely using her experience and striking skills to outpoint Hardy over the rounds, leading to a decision victory based on superior control and effective striking.
Final Picks and Conclusion: UFC Fight Night St. Louis
Below is a summary table of all the fight predictions for both the main and preliminary cards, encapsulating the expected outcomes based on the detailed analyses provided.
| Bout Type | Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence of Winner (1-10) | Method of Victory | Confidence of Method (1-10) | GO Distance? | Distance Confidence (1-10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavyweight | Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento | Derrick Lewis | 7 | KO/TKO | 8 | No | 8 |
| Welterweight | Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev | Joaquin Buckley | 6 | Decision | 7 | Yes | 7 |
| Light Heavyweight | Alonzo Menifield vs. Carlos Ulberg | Alonzo Menifield | 6 | KO/TKO | 7 | No | 8 |
| Lightweight | Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rebecki | Mateusz Rebecki | 8 | Submission | 6 | No | 7 |
| Featherweight | Alex Caceres vs. Sean Woodson | Sean Woodson | 7 | Decision | 8 | Yes | 9 |
| Heavyweight | Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 6 | Decision | 6 | Yes | 6 |
| Lightweight | Chase Hooper vs. Viacheslav Borshchev | Chase Hooper | 5 | Submission | 7 | No | 5 |
| Lightweight | Terrance McKinney vs. Esteban Ribovics | Terrance McKinney | 7 | KO/TKO | 6 | No | 6 |
| Women’s Strawweight | Tabatha Ricci vs. Tecia Pennington | Tecia Pennington | 6 | Decision | 7 | Yes | 8 |
| Welterweight | Billy Goff vs. Trey Waters | Trey Waters | 5 | Decision | 5 | Yes | 6 |
| Flyweight | Charles Johnson vs. Jake Hadley | Jake Hadley | 6 | Submission | 6 | No | 7 |
| Welterweight | Jared Gooden vs. Kevin Jousset | Jared Gooden | 7 | KO/TKO | 6 | No | 5 |
| Women’s Flyweight | JJ Aldrich vs. Veronica Hardy | JJ Aldrich | 7 | Decision | 8 | Yes | 8 |
This comprehensive analysis for UFC Fight Night in St. Louis is designed to provide fight enthusiasts and bettors with the most up-to-date and detailed predictions. Each fight has been carefully examined to consider the fighters’ strengths, weaknesses, and potential game plans, ensuring a deep understanding of what to expect during the event. Whether you are watching for the thrill of the fight or looking to make informed betting decisions, these insights will serve as a valuable guide for an exciting night of fights. Enjoy the bouts and may the best fighters prevail!