UFC 304 Fight Analysis and Predictions

JUMP TO PICKS

UFC 304 is set to deliver a thrilling night of mixed martial arts action on Saturday, July 27, 2024. The event will take place at Co-op Live in Manchester, England, marking the first-ever sporting event at the UK’s largest indoor arena. Fans can watch the main card starting at 10 p.m. ET / 3 a.m. UK on ESPN+ PPV in the United States and TNT Sports in the UK. The preliminary bouts will begin at 6 p.m. ET / 11 p.m. UK, with early prelims kicking off at 5 p.m. ET / 10 p.m. UK

This card is headlined by a highly anticipated Welterweight Title Bout between reigning champion Leon Edwards and challenger Belal Muhammad. The co-main event features an Interim Heavyweight Title Bout between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes. The event also includes several exciting matchups featuring some of the UFC’s top fighters and rising stars.

Now, let’s dive into a detailed evaluation of each fight, providing insights into the fighters’ histories and the reasoning behind our expert picks.

Detailed Fight Evaluations

Welterweight Title Bout: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2

Leon Edwards

Record: 22-3-0 (1 NC)
Height: 6′ 2″
Reach: 74″
Age: 32
Stance: Southpaw

Belal Muhammad

Record: 23-3-0 (1 NC)
Height: 5′ 11″
Reach: 72″
Age: 35
Stance: Orthodox

Fight Breakdown
Leon Edwards, the reigning welterweight champion, is known for his technical striking, excellent footwork, and strong grappling defense. Edwards is on a significant win streak and has defended his title successfully against top contenders. His ability to control the pace of the fight and land precise strikes makes him a formidable champion.

Belal Muhammad, on the other hand, is a relentless pressure fighter with a solid wrestling base and durable striking. Muhammad’s cardio and resilience allow him to push the pace, making it difficult for his opponents to find a rhythm. Their previous encounter ended in a no-contest due to an accidental eye poke by Edwards, adding extra intrigue to this rematch.

Prediction

Winner: Leon Edwards
Confidence: High (80%)
Method: Decision
Confidence: Medium (70%)
Distance: Yes
Confidence: High (75%)

Rationale
Edwards’ superior technical striking and experience in five-round fights give him the edge. While Muhammad’s pressure and wrestling will challenge Edwards, the champion’s ability to manage distance and avoid significant damage should lead him to a decision victory.

Interim Heavyweight Title Bout: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes 2

Tom Aspinall

Record: 12-3-0
Height: 6′ 5″
Reach: 78″
Age: 30
Stance: Orthodox

Curtis Blaydes

Record: 17-4-0 (1 NC)
Height: 6′ 4″
Reach: 80″
Age: 33
Stance: Orthodox

Fight Breakdown
Tom Aspinall is known for his speed, agility, and powerful striking, which are unusual for a heavyweight. His knockout power and ability to finish fights quickly make him a dangerous opponent. Aspinall’s ground game is also solid, with several submission victories to his name.

Curtis Blaydes, however, is one of the best wrestlers in the heavyweight division. His ground-and-pound is brutal, and he uses his wrestling to control and dominate opponents. Blaydes’ striking has also improved, making him a more well-rounded fighter.

Prediction

Winner: Tom Aspinall
Confidence: Medium (65%)
Method: TKO
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Distance: No
Confidence: Medium (65%)

Rationale
Aspinall’s speed and striking power give him a significant advantage on the feet. While Blaydes’ wrestling is a considerable threat, Aspinall’s ability to keep the fight standing and land powerful strikes makes a TKO victory likely.

Lightweight Bout: Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett

Bobby Green

Record: 29-14-1
Height: 5′ 10″
Reach: 71″
Age: 37
Stance: Orthodox

Paddy Pimblett

Record: 20-3-0
Height: 5′ 10″
Reach: 73″
Age: 29
Stance: Orthodox

Fight Breakdown
Bobby Green is a veteran with a unique fighting style, combining slick boxing, head movement, and solid takedown defense. Green’s experience and ability to frustrate opponents with his counter-striking make him a tough matchup.

Paddy Pimblett, a rising star, is known for his charismatic personality and exciting fighting style. Pimblett’s grappling is his strongest asset, with several submission victories in his career. His striking is aggressive, though his defense can be lacking at times.

Prediction

Winner: Paddy Pimblett
Confidence: Medium (70%)
Method: Submission
Confidence: High (75%)
Distance: No
Confidence: Medium (70%)

Rationale
Pimblett’s grappling edge and aggressive approach should help him secure a submission victory. Green’s striking will pose challenges, but Pimblett’s ability to take the fight to the ground and control it from there gives him the advantage.

Middleweight Bout: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Christian Leroy Duncan

Record: 7-0-0
Height: 6′ 2″
Reach: 76″
Age: 27
Stance: Orthodox

Gregory Rodrigues

Record: 13-4-0
Height: 6′ 3″
Reach: 75″
Age: 32
Stance: Orthodox

Fight Breakdown
Christian Leroy Duncan is an undefeated prospect known for his dynamic striking and athleticism. Duncan’s ability to mix up his attacks and keep opponents guessing has been key to his success.

Gregory Rodrigues, nicknamed “Robocop,” is a powerful striker with a background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Rodrigues’ aggressive style and knockout power make him a constant threat in the middleweight division.

Prediction

Winner: Gregory Rodrigues
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Method: KO
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Distance: No
Confidence: Medium (65%)

Rationale
Rodrigues’ power and aggressive approach give him the edge in this matchup. While Duncan’s undefeated record and dynamic striking are impressive, Rodrigues’ experience and finishing ability make a knockout victory likely.

Featherweight Bout: Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze

Arnold Allen

Record: 19-1-0
Height: 5′ 8″
Reach: 70″
Age: 30
Stance: Southpaw

Giga Chikadze

Record: 14-3-0
Height: 6′ 0″
Reach: 74″
Age: 35
Stance: Orthodox

Fight Breakdown
Arnold Allen is a well-rounded fighter with strong striking, excellent grappling, and exceptional cardio. Allen’s ability to adapt and implement effective game plans has been key to his success. His victories over top competition like Calvin Kattar and Dan Hooker highlight his skill set and resilience in the octagon.

Giga Chikadze is a dynamic striker with a background in kickboxing. Chikadze’s precision and ability to finish fights with strikes make him a dangerous opponent in the featherweight division. His notable wins over Edson Barboza and Cub Swanson demonstrate his striking prowess and knockout potential.

Prediction

Winner: Arnold Allen
Confidence: Medium (65%)
Method: Decision
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Distance: Yes
Confidence: High (70%)

Rationale
Allen’s well-rounded skill set and ability to control the pace of the fight give him the edge. Chikadze’s striking will pose challenges, but Allen’s grappling and cardio should help him secure a decision victory.

Women’s Strawweight Bout: Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil

Molly McCann

Record: 13-5-0
Height: 5′ 4″
Reach: 62″
Age: 33
Stance: Orthodox

Bruna Brasil

Record: 8-2-1
Height: 5′ 5″
Reach: 66″
Age: 29
Stance: Orthodox

Fight Breakdown
Molly McCann, also known as “Meatball,” is a gritty and determined fighter with a solid striking base. McCann’s aggressive style and relentless pressure have earned her notable victories against opponents like Ji Yeon Kim and Luana Carolina. Her striking is complemented by her ability to close the distance and engage in clinch work, making her a tough competitor in the strawweight division.

Bruna Brasil is a rising talent with a diverse skill set. She combines effective striking with a developing ground game. Brasil’s agility and reach advantage allow her to keep opponents at bay while landing significant strikes. Her recent performances have showcased her potential to climb the ranks, with victories over solid competition in regional circuits.

Prediction

Winner: Molly McCann
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Method: Decision
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Distance: Yes
Confidence: High (70%)

Rationale
McCann’s experience and toughness give her an edge in this matchup. While Brasil’s reach and striking could pose challenges, McCann’s relentless pressure and ability to grind out rounds should secure her a decision victory.

Bantamweight Bout: Jake Hadley vs. Caolan Loughran

Jake Hadley

Record: 10-3-0
Height: 5′ 7″
Reach: 70″
Age: 27
Stance: Southpaw

Caolan Loughran

Record: 9-1-0
Height: 5′ 6″
Reach: 68″
Age: 27
Stance: Orthodox

Fight Breakdown
Jake Hadley, nicknamed “White Kong,” is known for his striking and slick Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He has solid boxing skills, effective timing, and decent takedowns. Hadley aims to end a two-fight losing streak and bounce back strong in this bout, moving up a division for this fight.

Caolan Loughran, also known as “The Don,” trains at Team Kaobon in Liverpool and recently secured his first UFC victory against Angel Pacheco. Loughran brings a well-rounded skill set with solid striking and grappling, looking to build on his momentum and establish himself in the bantamweight division.

Prediction

Winner: Jake Hadley
Confidence: Medium (65%)
Method: Submission
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Distance: No
Confidence: Medium (65%)

Rationale
Hadley’s experience and grappling edge give him an advantage. Loughran’s aggressive style will be challenging, but Hadley’s technical skills and submission ability should lead him to victory.

Light Heavyweight Bout: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio

Modestas Bukauskas

Record: 14-6-0
Height: 6′ 3″
Reach: 78″
Age: 30
Stance: Orthodox

Marcin Prachnio

Record: 17-7-0
Height: 6′ 3″
Reach: 74″
Age: 35
Stance: Orthodox

Fight Breakdown
Modestas Bukauskas, a former Cage Warriors champion, is known for his striking and resilience. After two wins since returning to the UFC, he looks to bounce back from a recent knockout loss. Bukauskas combines powerful striking with solid grappling defense.

Marcin Prachnio is a dangerous striker with a solid kickboxing background. Prachnio has improved his performances recently, winning four of his last six fights, including a victory over Devin Clark. His aggressive style and knockout power make him a constant threat in the light heavyweight division.

Prediction

Winner: Modestas Bukauskas
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Method: KO
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Distance: No
Confidence: Medium (60%)

Rationale
Bukauskas’ striking power and resilience give him an edge. While Prachnio’s aggressive style and knockout ability are significant threats, Bukauskas’ experience and striking prowess make a knockout victory likely.

Welterweight Bout: Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons

Oban Elliott

Record: 9-2-0
Height: 6′ 0″
Reach: 74″
Age: 27
Stance: Orthodox

Preston Parsons

Record: 10-3-0
Height: 5′ 11″
Reach: 73″
Age: 28
Stance: Orthodox

Fight Breakdown
Oban Elliott, a rising talent, is known for his striking and wrestling. His ability to mix up his attacks and maintain a high pace has led to victories against tough competition. Elliott’s impressive UFC debut against Val Woodburn showcased his potential.

Preston Parsons, a well-rounded fighter, combines solid striking with effective grappling. Parsons’ relentless style and grappling control have earned him notable wins, making him a tough opponent. His victory over Evan Elder highlighted his skillset and resilience.

Prediction

Winner: Preston Parsons
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Method: Decision
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Distance: Yes
Confidence: High (70%)

Rationale
Parsons’ grappling and control should help him edge out a decision victory. Elliott’s striking will pose challenges, but Parsons’ well-rounded skill set and ability to control the fight on the ground give him the advantage.

Flyweight Bout: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape

Muhammad Mokaev

Record: 10-0-0 (1 NC)
Height: 5′ 7″
Reach: 70″
Age: 23
Stance: Orthodox

Manel Kape

Record: 18-6-0
Height: 5′ 5″
Reach: 68″
Age: 30
Stance: Southpaw

Fight Breakdown
Muhammad Mokaev, a rising star with a perfect record, is known for his dominant wrestling and relentless pace. Mokaev’s ability to control his opponents and implement his game plan has been key to his success. His recent victory over Tim Elliott highlighted his potential in the flyweight division.

Manel Kape, a former RIZIN champion, brings dynamic striking and knockout power. Kape’s aggressive style and finishing ability make him a constant threat. His wins over Zhalgas Zhumagulov and Ode Osbourne showcase his striking prowess and ability to end fights quickly.

Prediction

Winner: Muhammad Mokaev
Confidence: High (75%)
Method: Decision
Confidence: Medium (65%)
Distance: Yes
Confidence: Medium (65%)

Rationale
Mokaev’s wrestling and control should give him the edge. Kape’s striking will be dangerous, but Mokaev’s ability to dictate the fight’s pace and control positions should secure him a decision victory.

Welterweight Bout: Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie

Sam Patterson

Record: 10-2-1
Height: 6′ 3″
Reach: 78″
Age: 27
Stance: Orthodox

Kiefer Crosbie

Record: 9-3-0 (1 NC)
Height: 6′ 0″
Reach: 72″
Age: 33
Stance: Orthodox

Fight Breakdown
Sam Patterson, known for his height and reach, utilizes his striking and range effectively. Patterson’s ability to keep opponents at distance and land significant strikes makes him a tough matchup. His victories in Cage Warriors highlight his striking and adaptability.

Kiefer Crosbie, a gritty fighter from Ireland, combines striking with grappling. Crosbie’s aggressive style and toughness make him a challenging opponent. His experience in Bellator and Cage Warriors has prepared him for tough battles, showcasing his resilience.

Prediction

Winner: Sam Patterson
Confidence: Medium (65%)
Method: Decision
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Distance: Yes
Confidence: High (70%)

Rationale
Patterson’s reach and striking advantage should help him control the fight. Crosbie’s aggression and durability will make it a competitive bout, but Patterson’s technical striking and ability to maintain range should secure him a decision victory.

Heavyweight Bout: Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski

Mick Parkin

Record: 6-0-0
Height: 6′ 3″
Reach: 76″
Age: 27
Stance: Orthodox

Lukasz Brzeski

Record: 9-3-1 (1 NC)
Height: 6′ 4″
Reach: 78″
Age: 31
Stance: Orthodox

Fight Breakdown
Mick Parkin, an undefeated prospect, is known for his powerful striking and finishing ability. Parkin’s aggressive style and knockout power have led to a perfect record, making him a rising star in the heavyweight division.

Lukasz Brzeski, a well-rounded fighter, combines solid striking with grappling skills. Brzeski’s experience and ability to mix up his attacks make him a tough opponent. His recent performances in regional circuits have shown his potential to compete at a higher level.

Prediction

Winner: Mick Parkin
Confidence: Medium (65%)
Method: TKO
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Distance: No
Confidence: Medium (60%)

Rationale
Parkin’s striking power and aggressive style give him the edge. While Brzeski’s experience and versatility will be challenging, Parkin’s ability to land significant strikes and finish fights makes a TKO victory likely.

Women’s Strawweight Bout: Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean

Shauna Bannon

Record: 6-1-0
Height: 5′ 5″
Reach: 66″
Age: 29
Stance: Orthodox

Alice Ardelean

Record: 7-5-0
Height: 5′ 4″
Reach: 64″
Age: 31
Stance: Orthodox

Fight Breakdown
Shauna Bannon, a promising prospect, is known for her striking and agility. Bannon’s ability to keep the fight standing and utilize her reach effectively has been key to her success. Her recent victories highlight her potential and skill set.

Alice Ardelean, a seasoned competitor, brings experience and toughness to the cage. Ardelean’s grappling and striking make her a well-rounded fighter. Her ability to adapt and push the pace will challenge Bannon.

Prediction

Winner: Shauna Bannon
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Method: Decision
Confidence: Medium (60%)
Distance: Yes
Confidence: Medium (65%)

Rationale
Bannon’s striking and reach advantage should help her control the fight. Ardelean’s experience and toughness will make it competitive, but Bannon’s ability to keep the fight standing and land significant strikes should secure her a decision victory.

Todays Picks

Card Type	Fight	Predicted Winner	Confidence (Winner)	Method	Confidence (Method)	Distance	Confidence (Distance)	Summary/Rationale
Main	Leon Edwards (c) vs. Belal Muhammad 2	Leon Edwards	High (80%)	Decision	Medium (70%)	Yes	High (75%)	Edwards’ technical striking and experience in championship rounds give him the edge. Muhammad is tough and resilient, likely taking the fight to a decision.
Main	Tom Aspinall (ic) vs. Curtis Blaydes 2	Tom Aspinall	Medium (65%)	TKO	Medium (60%)	No	Medium (65%)	Aspinall’s speed and striking power could overwhelm Blaydes, though Blaydes’ wrestling is a significant threat.
Main	Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett	Paddy Pimblett	Medium (70%)	Submission	High (75%)	No	Medium (70%)	Pimblett’s grappling skills are superior, and he has shown the ability to finish fights on the ground.
Main	Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues	Gregory Rodrigues	Medium (60%)	KO	Medium (60%)	No	Medium (65%)	Rodrigues’ power and aggressive style make him a dangerous opponent, likely to finish the fight before the final bell.
Main	Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze	Arnold Allen	Medium (65%)	Decision	Medium (60%)	Yes	High (70%)	Allen’s well-rounded skill set and cardio advantage may help him outpoint Chikadze over three rounds.
Prelim	Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda	Nathaniel Wood	High (75%)	Decision	Medium (65%)	Yes	High (70%)	Wood’s striking accuracy and pace should allow him to control the fight and win on points.
Prelim	Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil	Molly McCann	Medium (60%)	Decision	Medium (60%)	Yes	High (70%)	McCann’s experience and toughness are likely to lead her to a decision victory against a rising Brasil.
Prelim	Caolan Loughran vs. Jake Hadley	Jake Hadley	Medium (65%)	Submission	Medium (60%)	No	Medium (65%)	Hadley’s grappling edge and submission skills make him a favorite to win by tapout.
Prelim	Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio	Modestas Bukauskas	Medium (60%)	KO	Medium (60%)	No	Medium (60%)	Bukauskas’ knockout power could be the deciding factor against Prachnio, who has been susceptible to KO losses.
Early Prelim	Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons	Preston Parsons	Medium (60%)	Decision	Medium (60%)	Yes	High (70%)	Parsons’ grappling and control can secure him a decision victory.
Early Prelim	Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape	Muhammad Mokaev	High (75%)	Decision	Medium (65%)	Yes	Medium (65%)	Mokaev’s wrestling and pace should help him edge out a decision win over the dangerous Kape.
Early Prelim	Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie	Sam Patterson	Medium (65%)	Decision	Medium (60%)	Yes	High (70%)	Patterson’s striking and movement can earn him a decision win in a closely contested bout.
Early Prelim	Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski	Mick Parkin	Medium (65%)	TKO	Medium (60%)	No	Medium (60%)	Parkin’s power and aggressive style make a TKO victory likely.
Early Prelim	Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean	Shauna Bannon	Medium (60%)	Decision	Medium (60%)	Yes	Medium (65%)	Bannon’s striking and overall skill set give her the edge to win on points against Ardelean.

Conclusion

UFC 304 promises to be an exciting night of fights with a stacked card featuring top contenders and rising stars. Whether you are a seasoned fight fan or new to the sport, there’s something for everyone in this lineup. Remember to enjoy the event responsibly, and for those betting on the fights, please wager within your means. Stay tuned for what promises to be a memorable night of mixed martial arts action live from Co-op Live in Manchester, England.