| Race Number | Win Pick | Confidence (0-10) | Place Pick | Confidence (0-10) | Show Pick | Confidence (0-10) | Exotic Pick | Confidence (0-10) | Rationale/Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thoughtful | 8 | Sundance Feature | 7 | Bellofthebluegrass | 6 | Exacta 6,4 | 7 | Thoughtful and Sundance Feature remain strong; Bellofthebluegrass solid for show. |
| 2 | Sidamara | 9 | Weigh the Risks | 8 | Standoutsensation | 7 | Trifecta 9,1,10 | 8 | No changes; strong trio for trifecta in the conditions. |
| 3 | Arthur’s Ride | 9 | Prove Worthy | 8 | Brigadier General | 7 | Trifecta 8,3,10 | 7 | No scratches; picks remain optimal for the conditions. |
| 4 | Bravo Kitten | 8 | Paint Me Perfect | 7 | School Dance | 6 | Superfecta N/A | N/A | Scratches impact; Bravo Kitten now leads, Paint Me Perfect and School Dance adjust up. |
| 5 | Idiomatic | 10 | Pretty Mischievous | 9 | Xigera | 8 | Exacta 4,5 | 9 | Scratches don’t affect the top picks; Idiomatic and Pretty Mischievous strong in exacta. |
| 6 | Ova Charged | 9 | Elm Drive | 8 | Miss Speedy | 7 | Pick 3 2,5,6 | 8 | Scratches adjust; Ova Charged, Elm Drive, Miss Speedy remain strong. |
| 7 | First Mission | 10 | Money Supply | 9 | Trademark | 8 | Exacta 3,1 | 9 | Tapit Trice scratch moves Tumbarumba and Money Supply up; First Mission leads. Tumbaruma Scratch |
| 8 | Heavenly Sunday | 9 | Sparkle Blue | 8 | Aspen Grove | 7 | Superfecta N/A | N/A | Be Your Best scratch; no change to top picks, leading contenders unchanged. |
| 9 | Denim and Pearls | 9 | Impel | 8 | My Mane Squeeze | 7 | Pick 4 N/A | N/A | Trial scratch; no impact on main picks, remain strong contenders. |
| 10 | Hard to Justify | 8 | Buchu | 7 | Mo Fox Givin | 6 | Pick 5 N/A | N/A | Pounce and others scratched; Hard to Justify, Buchu, and Mo Fox Givin adjust up. |
| 11 | Tarifa | 8 | Thorpedo Anna | 7 | Leslie’s Rose | 6 | Pick 6 N/A | N/A | Scratches of Candied and Tapit Jenallie; top picks remain strong. |
| 12 | Almostgone Rocket | 9 | Tweetster | 8 | Twirling Good Time | 7 | Super High Five 11,7,8 | 8 | Scratches of Hidden Class and others; Almostgone Rocket, Tweetster, Twirling Good Time best positioned. |
| 13 | Princess Madison | 9 | Chilled | 8 | Union MistAE | 7 | Exacta 8,2 | 8 | Multiple scratches; Princess Madison, Chilled, and Union MistAE are best placed. |
| Bet Type | Selections and Races | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Win | Idiomatic (Race 5) – Highest confidence in wet conditions. | Unchanged: Still the strongest contender in the lineup. |
| Place | Tumbarumba (Race 7) – Strong form and reliable performer. | Updated from Tapit Trice; solid pick post-scratch. |
| Show | Mo Fox Givin (Race 10) – Consistent and robust in trials. | Pounce scratched; Mo Fox Givin has a good show potential. |
| Win/Place/Show | Denim and Pearls (Race 9) – Versatile and tough competitor. | Still running, well-suited to the race conditions. |
| Win/Place | Heavenly Sunday (Race 8) – Excellent form on muddy tracks. | Unaffected by scratches, remains a strong pick. |
| Win/Show | Arthur’s Ride (Race 3) – Dominant in sloppy conditions. | No impact from scratches; excellent pick for these bets. |
| Place/Show | Thorpedo Anna (Race 11) – Well-suited for today’s challenge. | No change needed; still well-positioned to perform. |
| Exacta | Denim and Pearls and Impel (Race 9) | Strong contenders in a race unaffected by major scratches. |
| Trifecta | Heavenly Sunday, Sparkle Blue, Aspen Grove (Race 8) | Strong lineup and ideal for trifecta betting. |
| Superfecta | Hard to Justify, Buchu, Mo Fox Givin, Kalispera (Race 10) | Best lineup for superfecta post-scratches in Race 10. |
| Super High Five | Almostgone Rocket, Tweetster, Twirling Good Time, Saratoga Secret, Lugan Knight (Race 12) | Optimal for a high-five bet in Race 12. |
| Pick 3 | Races 6, 7, 8: Ova Charged (R6), First Mission (R7), Heavenly Sunday (R8) | Strong sequence, leveraging top contenders. |
| Pick 4 | Races 8, 9, 10, 11: Heavenly Sunday (R8), Denim and Pearls (R9), Hard to Justify (R10), Tarifa (R11) | Strategic picks across these races, strong form noted. |
| Pick 5 | Races 7, 8, 9, 10, 11: First Mission (R7), Heavenly Sunday (R8), Denim and Pearls (R9), Hard to Justify (R10), Tarifa (R11) | Broad coverage of top picks, starting from Race 7. |
| Pick 6 | Races 6 through 11: Ova Charged (R6), First Mission (R7), Heavenly Sunday (R8), Denim and Pearls (R9), Hard to Justify (R10), Tarifa (R11) | Full day coverage, starting with Race 6, strong lineup throughout. |