Welcome back to HackTheSpread, your go-to resource for expert fight analysis, betting strategies, and everything you need to make informed decisions on fight night. This Saturday, UFC on ESPN 61 is bringing us a thrilling card headlined by Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac in a heavyweight clash. The event will be held at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, and it’s one you won’t want to miss.
The prelims kick off at 5:00 PM ET, with the main card starting at 8:00 PM ET. You can catch all the action live on ESPN and ESPN+. But before the first punch is thrown, let’s dive into the fights and break down where your money should be going.
Fight Breakdown
Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac
This heavyweight showdown is the main event for a reason. Marcin Tybura (25-8-0) has always been a durable fighter with a well-rounded skill set, but his kryptonite has been opponents with strong wrestling and ground control. Enter Serghei Spivac (17-3-0), a fighter who excels exactly where Tybura struggles. Spivac has a takedown average of 4.7 per 15 minutes and boasts a high success rate on the ground. His recent victories, including a submission win over Derrick Lewis and a TKO over Greg Hardy, showcase his ability to control and finish heavyweights on the mat.
While Tybura has more UFC experience and has faced top-tier competition, Spivac’s recent form and stylistic advantages make him the favorite. The odds lean heavily towards Spivac finishing Tybura via TKO/KO once he establishes ground dominance.
Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal
Damon Jackson (23-5-1) is known for his grappling, with 15 of his wins coming via submission. However, his striking remains a liability, particularly against aggressive, high-output fighters. Chepe Mariscal (16-6-0) is exactly that—a fighter who thrives in chaos and pressure. With a 52% striking accuracy and a willingness to brawl, Mariscal has the tools to overwhelm Jackson on the feet and defend well enough on the ground to avoid serious danger.
Expect Mariscal to push the pace, wear down Jackson, and secure a decision victory in a fight that will likely stay competitive throughout.
Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
Danny Barlow (8-0-0) is a rising star with heavy hands and a knack for finding the finish. Undefeated with six of his wins coming via KO/TKO, Barlow is a nightmare for anyone who can’t handle pressure. Nikolay Veretennikov (12-4-0), while experienced, has shown vulnerabilities in his striking defense, particularly against powerful opponents. Veretennikov has a lower striking accuracy (48%) compared to Barlow’s, and has been stopped before, making him susceptible to Barlow’s relentless forward movement and striking power.
Given Barlow’s momentum and Veretennikov’s defensive lapses, the most likely outcome is a Barlow TKO/KO victory, adding another highlight to his resume.
Chris Gutierrez vs. Quang Le
Chris Gutierrez (20-6-2) is known for his devastating leg kicks and his ability to fight from a distance, neutralizing his opponent’s offense. With a striking differential of +1.3, Gutierrez is a fighter who knows how to control the pace and land shots without taking too much damage. Quang Le (8-0-0) is an undefeated prospect, but he hasn’t faced someone with Gutierrez’s level of tactical striking.
Le’s path to victory involves closing the distance and turning this into a brawl, but Gutierrez’s footwork and leg kicks should keep him at bay, leading to a decision win for the more experienced fighter.
Yana Santos vs. Chelsea Chandler
Yana Santos (14-8-0) is a veteran of the sport, but she’s currently on a three-fight losing streak. Chelsea Chandler (6-2-0), on the other hand, is a rising talent with a grappling-heavy approach. Santos has struggled against fighters who can take her down and control her on the mat, which plays right into Chandler’s strengths. With 2.5 submissions per 15 minutes and a 100% takedown defense in her UFC career, Chandler has the edge in the grappling department.
Expect Chandler to push for the takedown early and work for a submission finish, possibly in the second or third round.
Toshiomi Kazama vs. Charalampos Grigoriou
Toshiomi Kazama (10-4-0) comes into this fight looking to rebound from recent losses, but he’s up against Charalampos Grigoriou (8-4-0), a fighter known for his high volume and relentless pace. Kazama has struggled with fighters who can outwork him and keep a high tempo, and Grigoriou fits that mold perfectly. With an average of 5.3 significant strikes landed per minute, Grigoriou’s output should be the deciding factor in this fight.
Look for Grigoriou to outpoint Kazama over three rounds, winning a decision by simply outworking his opponent.
Karol Rosa vs. Pannie Kianzad
Karol Rosa (17-6-0) and Pannie Kianzad (16-8-0) are both seasoned fighters in the bantamweight division, each looking to solidify their position in the rankings. Rosa is known for her aggressive striking, landing an impressive 6.5 significant strikes per minute with a 51% accuracy. Her pressure and volume can overwhelm opponents, making her a formidable force in the Octagon. On the other side, Kianzad is a well-rounded fighter with solid striking and grappling, but she has been inconsistent in recent bouts, losing two of her last three fights.
Given Rosa’s ability to push the pace and maintain a high output, she is likely to edge out Kianzad in what should be a closely contested fight, winning by decision.
Jhonata Diniz vs. Karl Williams
In this heavyweight clash, Jhonata Diniz (7-0-0) comes in with an undefeated record and a reputation for finishing fights, boasting six of his seven wins by knockout. However, Karl Williams (10-1-0) is a different challenge. Williams is a strong wrestler, with an average of 4.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 75% takedown defense. His ability to control opponents on the ground is a key advantage against a striker like Diniz.
While Diniz will be dangerous early, Williams’ wrestling should allow him to control the fight and secure a decision victory by neutralizing Diniz’s striking.
Youssef Zalal vs. Jarno Errens
Youssef Zalal (14-5-1) and Jarno Errens (14-5-1) are both evenly matched featherweights. Zalal, known as “The Moroccan Devil,” has excellent footwork and defensive striking, with a striking differential of +1.5. His ability to avoid damage while landing counters makes him a tough puzzle to solve. Errens, while a game fighter, doesn’t possess the same level of technical striking and could struggle to close the distance against Zalal’s movement.
Expect Zalal to use his speed and defense to outpoint Errens over three rounds, leading to a decision win.
Stephanie Luciano vs. Talita Alencar
This women’s strawweight bout features Stephanie Luciano (5-1-1) against Talita Alencar (5-0-1), a grappler with a perfect record. Alencar is a submission specialist with an aggressive style, averaging 2.8 submissions per 15 minutes. Luciano, while skilled, has shown vulnerabilities on the ground, which could be a problem against a fighter of Alencar’s caliber.
The smart money is on Alencar to secure a submission victory, likely in the first or second round, given her grappling dominance.
Tonight’s Picks
| Event | Fight Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Predicted Method | Confidence (Method) | Will it Go the Distance? | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Card | Marcin Tybura vs Serghei Spivac | Serghei Spivac | High (75%) | TKO/KO | High (70%) | No | Medium (60%) | Spivac’s grappling-heavy approach and ground control give him a clear edge over Tybura, who struggles against strong wrestlers. Expect Spivac to dominate. |
| Main Card | Damon Jackson vs Chepe Mariscal | Chepe Mariscal | Medium (65%) | Decision | Medium (60%) | Yes | High (70%) | Mariscal’s pressure and durability could be key, but Jackson’s experience might make this a competitive decision bout. |
| Main Card | Danny Barlow vs Nikolay Veretennikov | Danny Barlow | Medium (60%) | TKO/KO | Medium (60%) | No | Low (55%) | Barlow’s striking power should overwhelm Veretennikov, who lacks the defensive capability to handle aggressive strikers. |
| Main Card | Chris Gutierrez vs Quang Le | Chris Gutierrez | High (70%) | Decision | High (65%) | Yes | High (75%) | Gutierrez’s leg kicks and movement should allow him to control the fight, neutralizing Le’s offense and winning on the scorecards. |
| Main Card | Yana Santos vs Chelsea Chandler | Chelsea Chandler | Medium (60%) | Submission | Medium (55%) | No | Medium (60%) | Chandler’s grappling and submission skills give her an edge over Santos, who might struggle with Chandler’s ground game. |
| Main Card | Toshiomi Kazama vs Charalampos Grigoriou | Charalampos Grigoriou | Medium (60%) | Decision | Medium (55%) | Yes | Medium (65%) | Grigoriou’s consistent output and ability to keep a high pace should earn him a decision win over Kazama, who may struggle with Grigoriou’s volume. |
| Prelim | Karol Rosa vs Pannie Kianzad | Karol Rosa | Medium (65%) | Decision | High (70%) | Yes | High (75%) | Rosa’s aggressive striking and pressure should be enough to edge out Kianzad in a closely contested decision. |
| Prelim | Jhonata Diniz vs Karl Williams | Karl Williams | Medium (65%) | Decision | Medium (60%) | Yes | Medium (65%) | Williams’ wrestling and top control should be enough to neutralize Diniz’s striking, leading to a decision victory. |
| Prelim | Youssef Zalal vs Jarno Errens | Youssef Zalal | Medium (60%) | Decision | Medium (60%) | Yes | High (70%) | Zalal’s footwork and defensive striking should allow him to outpoint Errens over the course of three rounds. |
| Prelim | Stephanie Luciano vs Talita Alencar | Talita Alencar | Medium (65%) | Submission | Medium (60%) | No | Medium (60%) | Alencar’s superior grappling and submission skills should give her the advantage over Luciano, who may struggle to keep the fight standing. |
Where to Watch
UFC on ESPN 61 takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, and you can watch the entire event live on ESPN and ESPN+. The prelims start at 5:00 PM ET, followed by the main card at 8:00 PM ET. Don’t miss out on what promises to be an action-packed night of fights, and use this guide to help shape your betting strategy.
Stay tuned to HackTheSpread for more insights, picks, and in-depth fight analysis. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just looking to get into the action, we’ve got you covered every step of the way.