Baseball season is in full swing, and for sports bettors, that means one thing—MLB player props! If you’ve been sticking to traditional bets like moneylines and totals, it’s time to expand your game and dive into the exciting world of player props. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a rookie looking to step up to the plate, this guide will have you smashing your prop bets out of the park.

What Are MLB Player Props?

If you’re new to player props, here’s the quick pitch: player props are bets on individual player performances rather than the outcome of the game. Will Aaron Judge hit a home run? Will Shohei Ohtani strike out more than 7.5 batters? These are just a few of the countless prop bets available every day during the MLB season.

But how do you identify the best bets? Let’s break it down with some pro-level strategy!

1. Dig into the Stats

Baseball is a game of numbers, and player props are no different. To make informed bets, you need to dive deep into the stats:

• Recent Form: Look at a player’s performance over the last 10 games. Are they on a hitting streak, or have they been in a slump? For pitchers, check their recent strikeout totals and ERA.
• Splits: Baseball is all about matchups. Check how a player performs against right-handed vs. left-handed pitchers, or how a pitcher fares against left-handed batters. These splits can give you a significant edge.
• Ballpark Factors: Some ballparks are more hitter-friendly (like Coors Field), while others favor pitchers. Adjust your bets accordingly based on where the game is being played.

2. The Importance of Matchups

In MLB, matchups are everything. A great hitter might struggle against a dominant pitcher, and vice versa. Here’s how to use matchups to your advantage:

• Pitcher vs. Hitter History: Some batters see the ball well against certain pitchers. Check the head-to-head stats before placing your bet. If a batter has a strong track record against a pitcher, that’s a green light for an over on hits, RBIs, or total bases.
• Pitch Type Success: Dig into the data to see how a batter performs against specific pitch types (e.g., fastballs, sliders). If a pitcher relies heavily on a pitch that a batter struggles with, consider betting the under on the batter’s props.
• Defensive Weaknesses: Some teams are weaker defensively at certain positions. If a team struggles to defend against base stealers, consider betting on a stolen base prop for a speedster like Trea Turner.

3. Game Environment Matters

Baseball games can vary greatly in terms of pace and scoring. Use game environment factors to inform your bets:

• Weather: Wind and temperature can significantly impact baseball games. Wind blowing out at Wrigley Field? That’s a recipe for home runs. Wind blowing in? Time to bet the under on total bases or home runs.
• Umpire Tendencies: Umpires can have a big influence on the game’s flow. Some have tight strike zones (favors hitters), while others have wide zones (favors pitchers). Knowing the umpire’s tendencies can give you an edge.
• Game Total: High-scoring games offer more opportunities for hitters to rack up stats, while low-scoring pitchers’ duels might favor unders on hitter props and overs on pitcher strikeouts.

4. Volume and Opportunity

When betting on MLB player props, focus on players who get plenty of opportunities:

• At-Bats: The more at-bats a player gets, the more chances they have to hit their props. Leadoff hitters and players batting at the top of the order are prime candidates for hitting and run props.
• Pitch Count: For pitcher props, pay attention to expected pitch count. Starters who are allowed to go deep into games are more likely to hit strikeout props. Conversely, a pitcher on a pitch limit might be a good candidate for an under.

5. Keep an Eye on Line Movement

Just like in any other sport, line movement can tell you a lot about where the smart money is going:

• Sharp Action: If a prop’s line moves significantly, it’s often due to sharp bettors placing large bets. This can be a strong indicator of where the value lies.
• Timing: Pay attention to when the lines move. Early line moves can indicate sharp money, while late moves might be due to public betting. Use this information to time your bets effectively.

6. Be Selective and Strategic

With so many props available, it’s easy to get overwhelmed. Stay disciplined and focus on the bets where you have a clear edge:

• Target Specific Markets: Instead of betting on every type of prop, specialize in a few markets where you have the most knowledge, such as home runs, strikeouts, or total bases.
• Avoid Overreacting to One Game: Baseball is a long season, and one bad game doesn’t define a player. Stick to your research and trust the long-term trends.

7. Bankroll Management

Even with a solid strategy, proper bankroll management is crucial to staying in the game:

• Flat Betting: Consider using flat betting, where you wager the same amount on each bet. This helps protect your bankroll from losing streaks.
• Limit Risk: Don’t chase losses by increasing your bet size. Stay disciplined and stick to your strategy.

Bonus Tips: What to Avoid

• Avoid Betting on Your Favorite Team: It’s tempting to bet on your favorite players, but bias can cloud your judgment. Stick to the stats and leave fandom at the door.
• Watch Out for Small Sample Sizes: Don’t overreact to a player’s performance in just a few games. Baseball is a game of averages, so focus on larger sample sizes when making decisions.

Final Thoughts

MLB player props are a fun and potentially profitable way to get more involved in the game. With the right strategy, a keen eye for matchups, and disciplined bankroll management, you can hit your prop bets out of the park. Remember, it’s all about making informed decisions and enjoying the thrill of the game.

So, grab your peanuts and Cracker Jack, fire up the stats, and get ready to make this MLB season your best one yet!

Let’s play ball! ⚾