Welcome to another edition of HackTheSpread’s UFC fight analysis and betting breakdown! This weekend’s card offers intense matchups across multiple weight divisions, with plenty of value for bettors seeking both safe plays and high-payout parlays. We’ll take a deep dive into each notable matchup, discuss our picks and rationale, and highlight the best options for solid and riskier parlays.
Fight Card Breakdown and Analysis
Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi
- Pick: Brandon Moreno by Decision
- Rationale: Brandon Moreno is a proven warrior with incredible cardio, striking precision, and high fight IQ. Although Albazi has shown formidable grappling skills, Moreno’s takedown defense and ability to withstand pressure should give him the edge in a high-stakes five-round battle. Albazi will likely attempt to control the fight with takedowns, but Moreno’s endurance and ability to create space and return to his feet make him a favorite for a decision win. Additionally, Moreno’s recent fights have shown that he can adapt quickly mid-fight, a quality that will be invaluable against Albazi’s early aggression.
Co-Main Event: Rose Namajunas vs. Erin Blanchfield
- Pick: Rose Namajunas by Decision
- Rationale: Namajunas’ experience, particularly in longer, strategic fights, is key here. She’s demonstrated an ability to handle opponents who press forward, making her a tough matchup for Blanchfield, who relies heavily on takedowns and clinch control. While Blanchfield is a rising talent with impressive grappling, her path to victory hinges on establishing early control on the ground. However, Namajunas’ footwork, range management, and striking make it difficult for grapplers to close the distance. This matchup likely goes to decision, with Namajunas able to outpoint Blanchfield if she maintains her range and picks her shots wisely.
Caio Machado vs. Brendson Ribeiro
- Pick: Caio Machado by KO/TKO
- Rationale: This fight pits two powerful strikers against each other, but Machado’s accuracy and defensive skills could be the deciding factor. While Ribeiro has shown explosive power, he tends to fade when pressured, making him vulnerable in later rounds. Machado’s striking defense and ability to counter-strike should give him the opportunity to secure a KO if Ribeiro starts to lose steam. Though both fighters are still developing, Machado has a slight advantage in maintaining control when faced with an opponent’s aggression.
Ariane da Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision
- Rationale: Jasudavicius is a grappling-heavy fighter who thrives on wearing down her opponents through clinch control and top position. Against da Silva, who is less experienced in defending takedowns, Jasudavicius’ advantage lies in her ability to keep the fight close and control the pace. Da Silva has striking potential but lacks a history of finishes, which plays into Jasudavicius’ favor for a decision victory. The pick is further supported by Jasudavicius’ cardio and track record in decision wins.
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
- Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault by KO/TKO
- Rationale: Barriault is a heavy hitter with a relentless pace, which can overwhelm Stoltzfus, especially given his vulnerabilities against powerful strikers. Stoltzfus has struggled with durable, high-volume opponents, and Barriault’s style of constant pressure can expose those weaknesses. Expect Barriault to land with frequency and potentially earn a TKO if Stoltzfus fails to disrupt Barriault’s rhythm with his grappling. With Barriault coming in with strong momentum, he’s a solid pick for a stoppage win.
Mike Malott vs. Trevin Giles
- Pick: Mike Malott by Submission
- Rationale: Malott’s submission skills are well-suited to exploit Giles’ tendency to leave openings on the ground. Giles has been finished in most of his losses, which gives Malott an edge in securing an early submission. The betting community has a lot of confidence in Malott due to his strong performances and high finishing rate. This matchup favors Malott to lock in a submission if he can get Giles to the mat, making him a strong choice for parlays.
Aiemann Zahabi vs. Pedro Munhoz
- Pick: Pedro Munhoz by Decision
- Rationale: This is a close bout with both fighters showing strengths in endurance and technical striking. Munhoz’s recent experience against high-level opponents may give him a slight edge in a technical fight. Zahabi has made strides, but Munhoz’s pressure and durability should see him through to a decision, with the expectation that his experience and savvy will allow him to control the tempo.
Charles Jourdain vs. Victor Henry
- Pick: Victor Henry by Decision
- Rationale: Henry’s impressive stamina and high strike output make him the favorite to outlast Jourdain. Jourdain has had some recent challenges in high-output bouts, and Henry’s consistency in volume striking is likely to make the difference here. If the fight stays standing, Henry’s pace should allow him to score enough points for a decision win.
Jack Shore vs. Youssef Zalal
- Pick: Youssef Zalal by Decision
- Rationale: Zalal’s technical striking and grappling versatility give him an advantage over Shore. Zalal has shown growth in his fight IQ, and he is expected to use his size and agility to control the pace and direction of the fight. Shore’s potential to grind the fight to the ground is a concern, but Zalal’s defensive grappling should allow him to defend against prolonged control, giving him the upper hand.
Alexandr Romanov vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
- Pick: Alexandr Romanov by KO/TKO
- Rationale: Romanov is known for his strength and early explosiveness, which could prove difficult for Nascimento to handle. While Romanov’s cardio has faltered in the past, his initial power and ground control provide a pathway to victory if he secures top position early. Nascimento could pose a late-round threat if Romanov fades, but Romanov’s grappling advantage makes him a likely pick for a finish.
Serhiy Sidey vs. Garrett Armfield
- Pick: Garrett Armfield by Decision
- Rationale: Armfield’s composure and ability to manage his energy give him an edge here. While Sidey has shown improvement, Armfield’s consistency and defense may prove decisive in what’s expected to be a close contest. Armfield’s style should help him control the fight pace, keeping Sidey at bay for a decision win.
Chad Anheliger vs. Cody Gibson
- Pick: Cody Gibson by Submission
- Rationale: Gibson has shown a solid ground game and submission skills, which could exploit Anheliger’s gaps in grappling defense. Given that Anheliger has been vulnerable to submissions in the past, Gibson has a clear path to a finish if he brings the fight to the mat.
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Ivana Petrovic
- Pick: Ivana Petrovic by Decision
- Rationale: Petrovic’s grappling background and ability to maintain top control give her a slight advantage. Horth’s striking and size could make this competitive, but Petrovic’s control in close-range situations should secure her a decision win.
Tonight’s Picks
Parlay Suggestions
Solid Parlay
- Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision
- Mike Malott by Submission
- Rationale: Jasudavicius’ clinch control and Malott’s submission prowess create a reliable parlay with a high chance of hitting. Jasudavicius has the durability to take it to the scorecards, and Malott’s history of finishes makes him a strong submission candidate.
Riskier Parlay with Big Upside
- Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision
- Marc-Andre Barriault by KO
- Victor Henry by Decision
- Rationale: This parlay adds Barriault’s KO potential and Henry’s volume striking, creating higher odds for bettors willing to take a bit of risk. Barriault’s power and Henry’s stamina boost this parlay’s upside for those looking to maximize returns.
Underdog Spotlight
Garrett Armfield vs. Serhiy Sidey
- Pick: Garrett Armfield by Decision
- Rationale: Armfield comes in as a slight underdog, but his past performances and strong defense make him a worthy pick. He’s resilient and capable of winning on points, making him a calculated underdog play for those looking to add value.
Final Thoughts
This fight card is filled with competitive matchups that provide value for both risk-takers and conservative bettors. The parlay options here combine high-percentage plays and calculated risks to help you make the most out of your betting lineup. Be sure to keep an eye on the odds with top sportsbooks like DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel, and Bet365, as odds may shift right up until fight night.
Stay tuned, bet wisely, and may your picks bring home the win!