Welcome back, fight fans, to HackTheSpread, your go-to source for UFC fight predictions and betting insights. Tonight, we’ve got a stacked card featuring some of the most exciting matchups in recent memory. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just looking to get an edge on tonight’s action, we’ve got you covered with our comprehensive analysis and predictions. Let’s dive into the matchups and break down our picks for each fight.
When and Where to Watch
Make sure you don’t miss a moment of the action! Here’s when and where to catch the fights:
Date: August 3, 2024
Prelims Start Time: 6:00 PM ET
Main Card Start Time: 9:00 PM ET
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Broadcast: The event will be broadcast live on ESPN+ in the United States. For international viewers, check your local listings or UFC’s official broadcast partners.
Now that you know when and where to watch, let’s get into the detailed analysis of each fight.
Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Method | Confidence (Method) | Distance | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov | Umar Nurmagomedov | High (85%) | Decision | Medium (70%) | Yes | High (80%) | Umar’s grappling and control will likely nullify Sandhagen’s striking. Sandhagen has good takedown defense, making a finish less likely. |
Umar Nurmagomedov, the cousin of the legendary Khabib Nurmagomedov, is carving his own path in the UFC. With an undefeated record and a background in wrestling and Sambo, Umar is a formidable opponent for anyone. Cory Sandhagen, on the other hand, is known for his unorthodox striking and creativity inside the Octagon. However, Sandhagen’s Achilles’ heel has been his grappling defense, which Umar is likely to exploit.
In his previous fights, Umar has showcased exceptional takedown accuracy and top control, reminiscent of his cousin Khabib. Sandhagen’s impressive takedown defense (64%) and his ability to scramble back to his feet will be tested tonight. While Sandhagen’s striking could pose problems for Umar, the latter’s grappling pedigree is expected to dictate the pace of the fight. Expect Umar to control the fight on the ground and secure a decision victory.
Shara Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Method | Confidence (Method) | Distance | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shara Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk | Shara Magomedov | Medium (65%) | TKO | Medium (60%) | No | Medium (65%) | Magomedov’s striking power and aggression will likely overwhelm Oleksiejczuk, who has shown vulnerabilities to heavy hitters. |
Shara Magomedov comes into this fight with a reputation for devastating knockout power. His aggressive striking style has earned him several first-round finishes. Michal Oleksiejczuk, while a capable striker in his own right, has shown vulnerabilities against opponents with significant power and pressure.
Oleksiejczuk’s defense has been a concern, as he absorbs significant strikes per minute (3.63). Magomedov’s relentless pressure and power should exploit these defensive lapses. Look for Magomedov to push the pace early and aim for a knockout, likely within the first two rounds.
Marlon Vera vs Deiveson Figueiredo
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Method | Confidence (Method) | Distance | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera vs Deiveson Figueiredo | Marlon Vera | Medium (70%) | Decision | Medium (60%) | Yes | Medium (70%) | Vera’s durability and pressure will be key against Figueiredo, who is moving up in weight and might struggle with Vera’s size and endurance. |
Marlon “Chito” Vera has been on a tear recently, showing improvements in every aspect of his game. Known for his durability and cardio, Vera is a nightmare matchup for anyone. Deiveson Figueiredo, the former flyweight champion, is making his bantamweight debut. While Figueiredo brings power and aggression, the move up in weight could pose challenges against a seasoned bantamweight like Vera.
Vera’s high striking output (4.27 significant strikes landed per minute) and excellent chin will be critical against Figueiredo’s power. Expect Vera to weather the early storm and take control in the later rounds, earning a decision victory through his relentless pressure and volume.
Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Method | Confidence (Method) | Distance | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa | Michael Chiesa | Medium (70%) | Submission | Medium (65%) | No | Medium (60%) | Chiesa’s grappling and submission skills are top-notch, and Ferguson has shown susceptibility to being controlled on the ground in recent fights. |
Tony Ferguson, once the boogeyman of the lightweight division, has had a tough stretch recently. Michael Chiesa, a grappling specialist, presents a difficult challenge for Ferguson, whose recent performances have shown a decline in his ability to deal with high-level grapplers.
Chiesa’s control and submission game (11 wins by submission) are his strongest assets. Ferguson’s wild style could create openings for Chiesa to secure a takedown and work his submission game. Given Ferguson’s recent struggles against grapplers, Chiesa is favored to win by submission.
Mackenzie Dern vs Loopy Godinez
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Method | Confidence (Method) | Distance | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern vs Loopy Godinez | Mackenzie Dern | High (80%) | Submission | High (75%) | No | Medium (65%) | Dern’s superior BJJ skills make her a favorite for a submission win, especially against Godinez, who might struggle to defend on the ground. |
Mackenzie Dern is one of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in the UFC women’s division. Her ability to secure submissions from various positions makes her a constant threat on the ground. Loopy Godinez, while a capable wrestler, will need to be extremely cautious to avoid Dern’s dangerous submission attempts.
Dern’s last fight showcased her improved striking, but her bread and butter remain her grappling. With Godinez’s tendency to engage in grappling exchanges, this fight is likely to end with Dern securing another submission victory.
Joel Alvarez vs Elves Brener
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Method | Confidence (Method) | Distance | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Alvarez vs Elves Brener | Joel Alvarez | Medium (70%) | TKO | Medium (65%) | No | Medium (60%) | Alvarez’s height and reach advantage, combined with his striking, should give him the edge over Brener, who might find it hard to close the distance. |
Joel Alvarez, known for his height and reach in the lightweight division, is a formidable striker with knockout power. Elves Brener, while a talented fighter, faces a significant challenge in overcoming Alvarez’s physical advantages.
Alvarez’s striking accuracy (54%) and ability to maintain distance will be crucial. Brener’s aggressive style could play into Alvarez’s counter-striking game, leading to a TKO victory for the taller, longer fighter.
Azamat Murzakanov vs Alonzo Menifeld
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Method | Confidence (Method) | Distance | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azamat Murzakanov vs Alonzo Menifeld | Azamat Murzakanov | Medium (65%) | Decision | Medium (60%) | Yes | Medium (65%) | Murzakanov’s wrestling and control will be crucial against Menifeld’s power. A tactical approach from Murzakanov is expected to win rounds. |
Azamat Murzakanov’s wrestling and tactical approach make him a tough opponent for the powerful Alonzo Menifeld. Menifeld’s knockout power is undeniable, but his susceptibility to being controlled by wrestlers has been evident in past fights.
Murzakanov’s ability to neutralize Menifeld’s power through wrestling and control will be key. Expect Murzakanov to grind out a decision victory by avoiding Menifeld’s heavy hands and maintaining top control.
Mohammad Yahya vs Kaue Fernandes
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Method | Confidence (Method) | Distance | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammad Yahya vs Kaue Fernandes | Mohammad Yahya | Medium (70%) | Decision | Medium (65%) | Yes | Medium (70%) | Yahya’s experience and technical striking should outpoint Fernandes, who is less experienced at this level. |
Mohammad Yahya brings a wealth of experience and technical striking to this matchup. Kaue Fernandes, while a promising prospect, lacks the high-level experience that Yahya possesses.
Yahya’s ability to dictate the pace and control the striking exchanges will likely result in a decision victory. Fernandes’ inexperience at this level will be a significant factor in this fight.
Shamil Gaziev vs Don’Tale Mayes
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Method | Confidence (Method) | Distance | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev vs Don’Tale Mayes | Shamil Gaziev | Medium (70%) | TKO | Medium (60%) | No | Medium (65%) | Gaziev’s power and aggression are likely to be too much for Mayes, who has been inconsistent in his performances. |
Shamil Gaziev is known for his aggressive fighting style and knockout power. Don’Tale Mayes, despite his physical attributes, has shown inconsistency in his performances, making him a risky bet against a power puncher like Gaziev.
Gaziev’s ability to close the distance and land powerful strikes will be key. Expect Gaziev to secure a TKO victory as he overwhelms Mayes with his aggression and power.
Guram Kutateladze vs Jordan Vucenic
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Method | Confidence (Method) | Distance | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guram Kutateladze vs Jordan Vucenic | Guram Kutateladze | High (75%) | Decision | Medium (70%) | Yes | High (75%) | Kutateladze’s striking and overall skill set should be too much for Vucenic, who is tough but likely outmatched in this contest. |
Guram Kutateladze has proven himself to be a high-level striker with excellent technical skills. Jordan Vucenic, while tough and durable, may find himself outmatched against Kutateladze’s polished striking.
Kutateladze’s ability to control the distance and outpoint his opponent with precise striking will likely lead to a decision victory. Vucenic’s toughness will make it difficult for Kutateladze to secure a finish, but he should comfortably win on the scorecards.
Viktoriia Dudakova vs Sam Hughes
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Method | Confidence (Method) | Distance | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktoriia Dudakova vs Sam Hughes | Viktoriia Dudakova | Medium (65%) | Decision | Medium (60%) | Yes | Medium (65%) | Dudakova’s grappling and control will be key to winning a decision over Hughes, who is durable and likely to last the distance. |
Viktoriia Dudakova’s grappling and control will be critical against Sam Hughes, who is known for her durability and toughness. Hughes’ ability to survive and push the pace makes her a difficult opponent to finish.
Dudakova’s superior grappling and ability to control Hughes on the ground should lead to a decision victory. While Hughes is likely to last the distance, Dudakova’s control and positional dominance will be the deciding factors.
Jai Herbert vs Rolando Bedoya
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Method | Confidence (Method) | Distance | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert vs Rolando Bedoya | Jai Herbert | Medium (70%) | TKO | Medium (65%) | No | Medium (60%) | Herbert’s striking and reach advantage will be decisive against Bedoya, who may struggle to handle Herbert’s power. |
Jai Herbert’s striking and reach make him a dangerous opponent for Rolando Bedoya. Herbert’s ability to keep the fight at range and land powerful strikes will be crucial.
Bedoya’s tendency to engage in firefights could play into Herbert’s hands. Expect Herbert to utilize his reach and striking accuracy to secure a TKO victory, capitalizing on Bedoya’s aggressive approach.
Sedriques Dumas vs Denis Tiuliulin
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Method | Confidence (Method) | Distance | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sedriques Dumas vs Denis Tiuliulin | Sedriques Dumas | Medium (65%) | Decision | Medium (60%) | Yes | Medium (65%) | Dumas’s versatility and endurance should see him through to a decision win over Tiuliulin, who has shown resilience but may lack the tools to secure a victory. |
Sedriques Dumas brings a versatile skill set and excellent endurance into this fight against Denis Tiuliulin. Tiuliulin, while resilient, has shown weaknesses that Dumas can exploit.
Dumas’s ability to mix up his striking and grappling will be key. Expect Dumas to use his versatility to outpoint Tiuliulin over three rounds, securing a decision victory through a well-rounded performance.
Tonight’s Picks
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Confidence (Winner) | Method | Confidence (Method) | Distance | Confidence (Distance) | Summary/Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov | Umar Nurmagomedov | High (85%) | Decision | Medium (70%) | Yes | High (80%) | Umar’s grappling and control will likely nullify Sandhagen’s striking. Sandhagen has good takedown defense, making a finish less likely. |
| Shara Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk | Shara Magomedov | Medium (65%) | TKO | Medium (60%) | No | Medium (65%) | Magomedov’s striking power and aggression will likely overwhelm Oleksiejczuk, who has shown vulnerabilities to heavy hitters. |
| Marlon Vera vs Deiveson Figueiredo | Marlon Vera | Medium (70%) | Decision | Medium (60%) | Yes | Medium (70%) | Vera’s durability and pressure will be key against Figueiredo, who is moving up in weight and might struggle with Vera’s size and endurance. |
| Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa | Michael Chiesa | Medium (70%) | Submission | Medium (65%) | No | Medium (60%) | Chiesa’s grappling and submission skills are top-notch, and Ferguson has shown susceptibility to being controlled on the ground in recent fights. |
| Mackenzie Dern vs Loopy Godinez | Mackenzie Dern | High (80%) | Submission | High (75%) | No | Medium (65%) | Dern’s superior BJJ skills make her a favorite for a submission win, especially against Godinez, who might struggle to defend on the ground. |
| Joel Alvarez vs Elves Brener | Joel Alvarez | Medium (70%) | TKO | Medium (65%) | No | Medium (60%) | Alvarez’s height and reach advantage, combined with his striking, should give him the edge over Brener, who might find it hard to close the distance. |
| Azamat Murzakanov vs Alonzo Menifeld | Azamat Murzakanov | Medium (65%) | Decision | Medium (60%) | Yes | Medium (65%) | Murzakanov’s wrestling and control will be crucial against Menifeld’s power. A tactical approach from Murzakanov is expected to win rounds. |
| Mohammad Yahya vs Kaue Fernandes | Mohammad Yahya | Medium (70%) | Decision | Medium (65%) | Yes | Medium (70%) | Yahya’s experience and technical striking should outpoint Fernandes, who is less experienced at this level. |
| Shamil Gaziev vs Don’Tale Mayes | Shamil Gaziev | Medium (70%) | TKO | Medium (60%) | No | Medium (65%) | Gaziev’s power and aggression are likely to be too much for Mayes, who has been inconsistent in his performances. |
| Guram Kutateladze vs Jordan Vucenic | Guram Kutateladze | High (75%) | Decision | Medium (70%) | Yes | High (75%) | Kutateladze’s striking and overall skill set should be too much for Vucenic, who is tough but likely outmatched in this contest. |
| Viktoriia Dudakova vs Sam Hughes | Viktoriia Dudakova | Medium (65%) | Decision | Medium (60%) | Yes | Medium (65%) | Dudakova’s grappling and control will be key to winning a decision over Hughes, who is durable and likely to last the distance. |
| Jai Herbert vs Rolando Bedoya | Jai Herbert | Medium (70%) | TKO | Medium (65%) | No | Medium (60%) | Herbert’s striking and reach advantage will be decisive against Bedoya, who may struggle to handle Herbert’s power. |
| Sedriques Dumas vs Denis Tiuliulin | Sedriques Dumas | Medium (65%) | Decision | Medium (60%) | Yes | Medium (65%) | Dumas’s versatility and endurance should see him through to a decision win over Tiuliulin, who has shown resilience but may lack the tools to secure a victory. |
That’s it for tonight’s picks! Remember, fight predictions can be unpredictable, and anything can happen inside the Octagon. Use this analysis to inform your betting strategy, but always bet responsibly. Enjoy the fights, and may the odds be ever in your favor!