As the Contender Series rolls on, Week 9 offers another chance for fighters to earn that elusive UFC contract. With high stakes on the line, the upcoming card features matchups that promise fireworks across the board. In this breakdown, we’ll dive deep into each fight, providing insights and predictions on what to expect come fight night. Here’s your full guide to watching, understanding, and betting on these matchups.
When, Where, and How to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, October 8, 2024
- Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Broadcast: ESPN+ (USA), UFC Fight Pass (International)
The fights kick off at 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT, and you can stream the entire card through ESPN+ in the US or via UFC Fight Pass internationally.
Fight Breakdown and Predictions
Main Event: Artem Vakhitov vs. Islem Masraf (Light Heavyweight)
- Predicted Winner: Artem Vakhitov
- Method of Victory: TKO, Round 2
- Confidence in Winner: Medium (70%)
- Will the Fight Go the Distance?: No, Low Confidence (40%)
Artem Vakhitov, a decorated kickboxer and former GLORY champion, enters his fourth MMA fight against the lesser-known Islem Masraf. Masraf is 3-0 in MMA but has yet to face an opponent of Vakhitov’s caliber. While Vakhitov’s transition to MMA has been cautious, his world-class striking is undeniable. Masraf’s best hope lies in exploiting Vakhitov’s grappling deficiencies, but with no real evidence that he can execute a takedown-heavy game plan, this fight looks like a setup for the Russian striker.
Expect Vakhitov to keep the fight standing, using his reach and precision to wear Masraf down before landing a decisive blow in the second round. However, his lack of MMA experience leaves a sliver of doubt, hence the medium confidence.
Co-Main Event: Kody Steele vs. Chasen Blair (Lightweight)
- Predicted Winner: Kody Steele
- Method of Victory: TKO, Round 3
- Confidence in Winner: Medium (65%)
- Will the Fight Go the Distance?: No, Low Confidence (50%)
Kody Steele is a power puncher with explosive finishing ability. He’s facing Chasen Blair, a D1 wrestler who could pose problems with his grappling. Blair’s wrestling pedigree gives him a path to victory, but Steele’s striking and improving takedown defense are likely to stymie that approach.
Steele has shown that he can rally in the later rounds, and this fight could follow a similar script. While Blair may find some success early with his wrestling, Steele’s power advantage will likely shine through as the fight progresses. We predict a late TKO for Steele after wearing Blair down through sheer pressure and striking volume.
Mario Pinto vs. Lucas Camacho (Heavyweight)
- Predicted Winner: Mario Pinto
- Method of Victory: Decision
- Confidence in Winner: High (80%)
- Will the Fight Go the Distance?: Yes, High Confidence (80%)
Heavyweight matchups in the Contender Series tend to deliver big finishes, but this fight may go against that trend. Mario Pinto is a highly touted heavyweight prospect known for his calculated approach and solid technical skills. Lucas Camacho is a durable opponent but lacks the technical depth to trouble Pinto.
While Pinto has knockout power, his patient style may lead to a drawn-out contest, with him picking apart Camacho over the three rounds. Camacho has proven his toughness, but his defensive lapses will see him outpointed in this contest.
Islam Dulatov vs. Vanilto Antunes (Welterweight)
- Predicted Winner: Islam Dulatov
- Method of Victory: Submission, Round 2
- Confidence in Winner: Medium (75%)
- Will the Fight Go the Distance?: No, Medium Confidence (65%)
Dulatov, a towering welterweight at 6’6″, presents a serious grappling threat in this matchup. His opponent, Vanilto Antunes, is a knockout artist who’s dangerous in the early rounds. However, Antunes’ striking can be wild and uncalculated, which plays into Dulatov’s strengths.
Expect Dulatov to weather an initial storm before taking the fight to the ground, where his superior grappling should lead to a submission in the second round. While Antunes has knockout power, his questionable grappling defense leaves him vulnerable.
Sean Gauci vs. Anthony Drilich (Flyweight)
- Predicted Winner: Sean Gauci
- Method of Victory: Decision
- Confidence in Winner: Medium (60%)
- Will the Fight Go the Distance?: Yes, Medium Confidence (60%)
The opening bout pits two highly talented flyweights against each other. Sean Gauci is the more technical striker, while Anthony Drilich has undeniable knockout power. Flyweights rarely carry this level of power, making Drilich a real threat to end the fight with one punch.
However, Gauci’s technical precision and ability to stick to a game plan should carry him through the fight. If Gauci can avoid getting drawn into a brawl and instead dictate the tempo with his crisp strikes, he should secure a decision victory. Drilich’s knockout threat looms large, but Gauci’s superior fight IQ gives him the edge.
Summary of Predictions
Each fight on the card carries its own unique dynamics, but here’s how we see the night playing out:
- Vakhitov vs. Masraf: Vakhitov by TKO, Round 2. Masraf lacks the tools to test Vakhitov’s MMA weaknesses.
- Steele vs. Blair: Steele by TKO, Round 3. Blair’s wrestling could cause problems, but Steele’s power and cardio should win the day.
- Pinto vs. Camacho: Pinto by Decision. Camacho’s durability will drag the fight to the judges, but Pinto’s skillset should secure him a comfortable win.
- Dulatov vs. Antunes: Dulatov by Submission, Round 2. Dulatov’s grappling advantage is too significant for Antunes to overcome.
- Gauci vs. Drilich: Gauci by Decision. Gauci’s technical skills should allow him to outpoint the dangerous but wild Drilich.
Betting Strategy
Given the odds and the breakdown of the fights, here’s a recommended betting strategy for this card:
- Parlay Option:
- Parlay Steele, Pinto, and Dulatov together for a solid multi-leg bet. The odds are in favor of these three fighters winning.
- Individual Plays:
- Pinto by Decision: Heavyweights don’t often go the distance, but Pinto’s style suggests a longer fight. This bet should offer great value.
- Vakhitov by TKO in Round 2: This specific prop bet could offer better odds than the moneyline. Vakhitov has the striking edge, and a round 2 finish seems highly likely.
- Underdog Play:
- Blair by Decision: If you’re looking for a value underdog, Blair’s wrestling could pose problems for Steele. There’s a path to victory if Blair can neutralize Steele’s power and control the grappling exchanges.
As always, manage your bankroll wisely and bet within your limits. Even strong favorites can be upset on Contender Series nights, as we’ve seen many times before.
Tonight’s Picks
Conclusion
Week 9 of Dana White’s Contender Series promises another round of thrilling matchups, where fighters’ futures will be decided. Artem Vakhitov’s potential to transition from elite kickboxer to UFC fighter will be a key storyline, while Steele, Pinto, and Dulatov have the chance to impress with strong performances. Gauci and Drilich, in the opening fight, should set the tone for what could be an unforgettable night of fights.
Make sure to tune in via ESPN+ or UFC Fight Pass, and enjoy the action!