Welcome back to HackTheSpread, your trusted source for fight analysis and betting insights! Dana White’s Contender Series Week 5 promises to be an exciting night of action, with a card full of emerging talents hungry for a UFC contract. We’ve broken down all five fights on the card, analyzing the matchups, recent performances, and key factors that could influence the outcomes.
This week’s matchups feature a mix of dangerous strikers, submission specialists, and well-rounded fighters, all looking to make a lasting impression. Let’s dive into the fight breakdowns, followed by tonight’s picks.
Breaking Down the Fights
Navajo Stirling vs. Phillip Latu (Main Event)
The main event sees Navajo Stirling, an undefeated light heavyweight from City Kickboxing, taking on the heavy-handed Phillip Latu. Stirling has shown smooth striking and excellent fight IQ, making use of his 82-inch reach advantage to control range. Training alongside UFC champions like Israel Adesanya, Stirling has developed fluid movement and dangerous counter-striking.
Latu, on the other hand, has made his mark with six knockout wins. His raw power is impressive, but his striking technique and cardio are potential weak spots, especially against a more polished striker like Stirling. This fight will likely stay on the feet, and we expect Stirling’s cleaner technique and reach advantage to frustrate Latu, leading to a knockout in the second round.
Kody Steele vs. Quemuel Ottoni
Kody Steele, a BJJ black belt with an aggressive wrestling game, is on a tear in his MMA career. Known for his explosive takedowns and power in his hands, Steele faces his toughest test yet against Quemuel Ottoni, a well-rounded veteran with dangerous submissions and striking. Ottoni famously handed Alex Pereira his first MMA loss, a testament to his high fight IQ and versatile skillset.
While Steele has the wrestling and ground control to dominate the fight, Ottoni’s experience and resilience make this a tricky matchup. If Ottoni can weather the early storm and force Steele into deeper waters, this could turn into a grind. However, Steele’s pace and power should be enough to secure a decision victory.
Yousri Belgaroui vs. Taiga Iwasaki
Yousri Belgaroui, a former kickboxing standout, returns to the Contender Series after an unfortunate loss last season. With extensive experience against elite strikers like Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya in kickboxing, Belgaroui’s striking is light years ahead of Iwasaki’s. Iwasaki is tough but has struggled when facing higher-level opponents, particularly on the ground.
Belgaroui’s kickboxing prowess, combined with his growing ability to defend takedowns, makes him the clear favorite here. Expect him to control the range, pick his shots, and finish the fight with strikes in the second round.
Otar Tanzilov vs. Josias Musasa
This matchup promises fireworks as two knockout artists square off. Otar Tanzilov has a reputation for landing spectacular finishes with spinning kicks and body shots, while Josias Musasa has lived up to his nickname, “The K.O. Wizard,” with all seven of his wins coming via knockout.
Musasa’s explosiveness and aggression make him dangerous in the early moments, but Tanzilov’s superior technical striking and composure should allow him to avoid the big shots and pick Musasa apart. Look for Tanzilov to weather an early storm and finish the fight with a TKO in the first round.
Corinne Laframboise vs. Nicolle Caliari
In the lone women’s bout, veteran Corinne Laframboise takes on the up-and-coming Nicolle Caliari. Laframboise, a BJJ world champion, is dangerous on the mat but has shown vulnerability in her striking and cardio. Additionally, she is returning from a long layoff, which raises concerns about her conditioning.
Caliari, a Muay Thai striker with solid grappling defense, has been the more active fighter and is likely the UFC’s favored prospect. If Caliari can keep the fight standing, she has the tools to outpoint Laframboise and win a decision. However, if Laframboise can secure takedowns early, this could turn into a close battle. Caliari’s youth and activity give her the edge, though, in what should be a competitive bout.
How the Predictions Were Made
At HackTheSpread, we base our predictions on a combination of fighter research, stylistic analysis, and recent performance trends. For DWCS Week 5, we weighed several factors for each fight:
- Striking vs. Grappling Dynamics: In matchups like Stirling vs. Latu and Belgaroui vs. Iwasaki, we emphasized the disparity in striking techniques. Belgaroui, with his extensive kickboxing experience, has a clear advantage over Iwasaki, whose striking defense has been shaky in previous fights. Similarly, Stirling’s reach and fluidity in striking should outclass Latu’s raw power.
- Cardio and Fight IQ: Steele vs. Ottoni and Tanzilov vs. Musasa feature fighters known for early finishes. However, if the fights stretch into later rounds, cardio and fight IQ become critical. Steele’s ability to maintain pace and control throughout 15 minutes makes him a solid pick, while Tanzilov’s composed approach in chaotic exchanges gives him the edge over Musasa, whose all-in style can leave openings.
- Layoff Concerns: Laframboise has been inactive for over two years, which can severely impact her timing and cardio, especially against a younger fighter like Caliari, who has remained active. While Laframboise’s grappling could be a major factor, her inactivity led us to favor Caliari slightly.
- Recent Tape and Forum Insights: By reviewing recent fights and gathering insights from knowledgeable MMA forums, we were able to get a better understanding of each fighter’s current form and any last-minute changes in preparation or strategy.
Tonight’s Picks
Conclusion
Dana White’s Contender Series is always full of surprises, and Week 5 offers some compelling matchups across multiple weight classes. While we feel confident in our picks, the nature of MMA means anything can happen. We’ll be keeping a close eye on these bouts as they unfold, and we encourage you to do the same!
Stay tuned to HackTheSpread for more betting insights, fight breakdowns, and post-event analysis. Let’s enjoy another exciting night of fights, and may your picks be profitable!