Welcome to another exciting night of UFC action! We’ve got a stacked card with intriguing matchups across both the main card and prelims. This blog post dives deep into the stats, breaking down each fight and providing detailed predictions. Whether you’re a seasoned fight fan or a newcomer looking to place some bets, this analysis is for you.
Main Card Breakdown
Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira (Flyweight)
Prediction: Tatsuro Taira by Submission
Confidence in Winner: High (75%)
Confidence in Method: Medium (60%)
Will the Fight Go the Distance: No (Medium, 55%)
Summary: Tatsuro Taira comes into this fight with an impressive undefeated record of 14-0-0. His striking defense (SApM: 1.73) and high submission average (1.8 per 15 minutes) make him a formidable opponent on the ground. Alex Perez, while experienced with a record of 24-8-0, has shown vulnerabilities in grappling exchanges. Taira’s ability to control the fight with his grappling and submission skills is likely to be the deciding factor.
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Miles Johns (Bantamweight)
Prediction: Miles Johns by Decision
Confidence in Winner: Medium (65%)
Confidence in Method: Medium (65%)
Will the Fight Go the Distance: Yes (High, 75%)
Summary: Miles Johns’ superior striking defense (SApM: 2.59) and takedown accuracy (33%) give him an edge in this matchup. Douglas Silva de Andrade, with his aggressive striking style, tends to leave openings that Johns can exploit. Given Johns’ balanced approach and defensive skills, a decision victory seems likely.
Timmy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida (Featherweight)
Prediction: Lucas Almeida by KO/TKO
Confidence in Winner: Medium (60%)
Confidence in Method: Medium (55%)
Will the Fight Go the Distance: No (Low, 45%)
Summary: Lucas Almeida’s high striking volume (SLpM: 5.07) and power make him a significant threat in this bout. Timmy Cuamba has decent takedown accuracy (40%), but Almeida’s striking prowess and Cuamba’s susceptibility to strikes (SApM: 2.90) suggest that Almeida is poised for a knockout victory.
Brady Hiestand vs. Garrett Armfield (Bantamweight)
Prediction: Brady Hiestand by Decision
Confidence in Winner: Medium (65%)
Confidence in Method: Medium (60%)
Will the Fight Go the Distance: Yes (Medium, 65%)
Summary: Brady Hiestand’s strong wrestling background (takedown average of 2.67) and striking defense (SApM: 3.63) give him the tools to control this fight. Garrett Armfield is a resilient fighter but may struggle against Hiestand’s grappling and pace. A decision win for Hiestand seems the most probable outcome.
Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Johnson (Flyweight)
Prediction: Asu Almabayev by Decision
Confidence in Winner: High (70%)
Confidence in Method: Medium (65%)
Will the Fight Go the Distance: Yes (High, 70%)
Summary: Asu Almabayev’s wrestling dominance (takedown average of 3.00 and 60% accuracy) and striking defense (SApM: 2.10) should enable him to control the pace and direction of the fight. Jose Johnson’s aggressive style will make for an exciting bout, but Almabayev’s superior control should secure him a decision victory.
Josh Quinlan vs. Adam Fugitt (Welterweight)
Prediction: Josh Quinlan by KO/TKO
Confidence in Winner: Medium (60%)
Confidence in Method: Medium (60%)
Will the Fight Go the Distance: No (Medium, 55%)
Summary: Josh Quinlan’s striking accuracy (SLpM: 5.20) and power position him well for a knockout win. Adam Fugitt’s defensive gaps (SApM: 4.40) and tendency to take damage could be exploited by Quinlan’s striking ability, making a KO/TKO finish likely.
Prelims Breakdown
Jimmy Flick vs. Nate Maness (Flyweight)
Prediction: Jimmy Flick by Submission
Confidence in Winner: Medium (60%)
Confidence in Method: High (70%)
Will the Fight Go the Distance: No (Medium, 60%)
Summary: Jimmy Flick’s exceptional submission skills (submission average of 2.4) and wrestling will be crucial in this fight. Nate Maness is tough, but Flick’s ability to control and finish on the ground gives him the upper hand.
Carli Judice vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women’s Flyweight)
Prediction: Gabriella Fernandes by Decision
Confidence in Winner: Medium (60%)
Confidence in Method: Medium (60%)
Will the Fight Go the Distance: Yes (High, 70%)
Summary: Gabriella Fernandes’ consistent performance in both striking and grappling (takedown average of 2.20) gives her the advantage over the less experienced Carli Judice. Fernandes’ balanced skill set makes a decision win probable.
Jeka Saragih vs. Westin Wilson (Featherweight)
Prediction: Jeka Saragih by KO/TKO
Confidence in Winner: Medium (65%)
Confidence in Method: Medium (55%)
Will the Fight Go the Distance: No (Medium, 55%)
Summary: Jeka Saragih’s striking efficiency (SLpM: 4.00) and power can overwhelm Westin Wilson, whose defense (SApM: 3.70) has shown vulnerabilities. A KO/TKO win for Saragih is likely given his striking prowess.
Melquizael Costa vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (Featherweight)
Prediction: Shayilan Nuerdanbieke by Decision
Confidence in Winner: Medium (65%)
Confidence in Method: Medium (60%)
Will the Fight Go the Distance: Yes (High, 70%)
Summary: Nuerdanbieke’s wrestling (takedown average of 3.00) and defensive capabilities should help him neutralize Costa’s striking. Nuerdanbieke’s control and takedown accuracy (50%) make a decision victory likely.
Josefine Knutsson vs. Julia Polastri (Women’s Strawweight)
Prediction: Josefine Knutsson by Decision
Confidence in Winner: High (70%)
Confidence in Method: High (70%)
Will the Fight Go the Distance: Yes (High, 80%)
Summary: Knutsson’s striking volume (SLpM: 4.50) and defense (SApM: 2.20) give her a significant edge. Polastri is a tough competitor, but Knutsson’s consistency and control should lead her to a clear decision win.
Picks Summary
Main Card Predictions
| Fight | Predicted Winner | Confidence in Winner | Predicted Method | Confidence in Method | Go the Distance | Confidence in Distance | Summary / Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira | Tatsuro Taira | High (75%) | Submission | Medium (60%) | No | Medium (55%) | Taira’s undefeated record and higher submission average make him a strong favorite. Perez has a solid striking game but Taira’s grappling and defense will likely dominate. |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Miles Johns | Miles Johns | Medium (65%) | Decision | Medium (65%) | Yes | High (75%) | Johns has shown better striking defense and takedown accuracy. Silva de Andrade’s experience is notable, but Johns’ all-around skills give him the edge. |
| Timmy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida | Lucas Almeida | Medium (60%) | KO/TKO | Medium (55%) | No | Low (45%) | Almeida’s higher striking volume and power should give him the advantage. Cuamba’s takedowns may pose a challenge but Almeida’s striking will likely prevail. |
| Brady Hiestand vs. Garrett Armfield | Brady Hiestand | Medium (65%) | Decision | Medium (60%) | Yes | Medium (65%) | Hiestand’s superior takedown average and striking defense should allow him to control the fight. Armfield’s resilience makes a decision win likely for Hiestand. |
| Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Johnson | Asu Almabayev | High (70%) | Decision | Medium (65%) | Yes | High (70%) | Almabayev’s superior wrestling and striking defense make him a favorite. Johnson’s aggressive style could lead to a decision win for Almabayev. |
| Josh Quinlan vs. Adam Fugitt | Josh Quinlan | Medium (60%) | KO/TKO | Medium (60%) | No | Medium (55%) | Quinlan’s striking accuracy and power give him an edge. Fugitt’s ground game is a threat, but Quinlan’s striking should secure him a win. |
Prelims Predictions
| Fight | Predicted Winner | Confidence in Winner | Predicted Method | Confidence in Method | Go the Distance | Confidence in Distance | Summary / Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Flick vs. Nate Maness | Jimmy Flick | Medium (60%) | Submission | High (70%) | No | Medium (60%) | Flick’s higher submission average and wrestling should give him the edge. Maness has good defense, but Flick’s grappling could be decisive. |
| Carli Judice vs. Gabriella Fernandes | Gabriella Fernandes | Medium (60%) | Decision | Medium (60%) | Yes | High (70%) | Fernandes’ more consistent takedown and striking stats give her the edge. Judice’s inexperience at this level could be a factor. |
| Jeka Saragih vs. Westin Wilson | Jeka Saragih | Medium (65%) | KO/TKO | Medium (55%) | No | Medium (55%) | Saragih’s striking volume and power should outmatch Wilson’s defense. Wilson’s ground game is solid, but Saragih’s striking will likely secure a win. |
| Melquizael Costa vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | Medium (65%) | Decision | Medium (60%) | Yes | High (70%) | Nuerdanbieke’s wrestling and control should help him secure a decision win. Costa’s striking is dangerous, but Nuerdanbieke’s defense should prevail. |
| Josefine Knutsson vs. Julia Polastri | Josefine Knutsson | High (70%) | Decision | High (70%) | Yes | High (80%) | Knutsson’s higher striking volume and defense give her a clear edge. Polastri is skilled, but Knutsson’s consistency and control should ensure a decision win. |
Conclusion
Tonight’s UFC Fight Night promises to be an electrifying event with plenty of action across both the main card and prelims. Our detailed analysis and predictions provide a comprehensive look at each fight, helping you understand the key factors and stats that may influence the outcomes. Stay tuned for what promises to be a memorable night of fights!