UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady is upon us, and it’s packed with electrifying matchups. From title contenders to rising prospects, this card offers a diverse array of styles and fighters. Whether you’re a dedicated fan or a bettor looking to cash in on the action, we’ve got you covered with detailed predictions and insights.
In this post, we’ll dive into each fight, analyze how the fighters match up, and explain the rationale behind our predictions. Plus, we’ll discuss the latest developments from fight week that might swing your betting decisions.
Before we jump into the predictions, remember to check out our August 2024 Predictions Roundup. It highlights how we’ve performed across various weight classes and which divisions have been more predictable. This insight will give you an edge when making your picks for this card.
How, When, and Where to Watch UFC Vegas 97
- Event: UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
- Date: Saturday, September 7, 2024
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Main Card Start Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Prelims Start Time: 4:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (United States), BT Sport (UK), UFC Fight Pass (International)
Main Card Breakdown and Predictions
Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight)
- Prediction: Sean Brady by Decision
Gilbert Burns, a top-tier welterweight, has long been known for his explosiveness and finishing ability. A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion, Burns possesses dangerous submission skills and knockout power in his hands, as seen in his victories over Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson and Tyron Woodley. Burns is aggressive, always looking to pressure opponents, but he has shown vulnerabilities against elite wrestlers.
Enter Sean Brady, an undefeated prospect with an elite wrestling pedigree and solid submission defense. Brady’s grinding style has seen him rack up wins over Michael Chiesa and Jake Matthews, and his cardio is built for high-paced fights. This matchup pits Burns’ dynamic offense against Brady’s stifling grappling.
The big question is whether Burns can keep the fight standing. Brady will look to wear him down with chain wrestling and top control, but Burns has the knockout power and submission threat to finish at any moment. However, Brady’s durability and ability to stay composed under pressure give him a strong chance to survive early rounds and take over late.
For bettors, the safest option is Brady by decision. Burns has struggled in drawn-out fights against grapplers, and Brady has shown the ability to control opponents without leaving openings. Given Brady’s durability and grind-it-out style, he should get the nod on the scorecards.
Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva (Flyweight)
- Prediction: Natalia Silva by TKO, Round 2
Jessica Andrade is a perennial contender across multiple divisions, known for her raw power and aggressive style. However, Andrade has had a rough patch recently, suffering several losses, including against Erin Blanchfield and Yan Xiaonan. While Andrade’s brawling style can overwhelm some fighters, she often leaves herself open to counters.
Natalia Silva, on the other hand, is a rising star in the flyweight division. Silva’s footwork, speed, and technical striking make her a dangerous opponent for Andrade. In her recent fights, Silva has showcased sharp counterstriking, an ability to control distance, and the patience needed to capitalize on openings.
One of the key factors here is Andrade’s tendency to rush forward, relying on brute force. Silva is poised to exploit that aggression with her precise, technical striking. Andrade’s durability has been called into question after several recent finishes, and Silva’s ability to mix up her attacks—particularly body shots—could wear her down.
Silva’s path to victory lies in weathering Andrade’s early storm and catching her with counters as Andrade barrels forward. Expect Silva to break down Andrade in the second round, leading to a TKO stoppage.
Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson (Featherweight)
- Prediction: Steve Garcia by TKO, Round 1
This featherweight bout pits two fighters known for their aggressive, forward-pressing styles. Steve Garcia comes into this fight on a strong run, with his powerful striking and high output making him a dangerous threat. Garcia is relentless in his pursuit of the finish, often overwhelming his opponents with volume and power.
Kyle Nelson, however, enters this fight having missed weight, which raises red flags about his preparation and conditioning. In his previous fights, Nelson has shown flashes of power but has struggled with consistency. His cardio has also been a concern, especially in fast-paced fights where his gas tank tends to fade.
With Garcia’s aggressive pace and Nelson potentially compromised by his weight cut, this fight looks like a prime spot for a quick finish. Garcia’s ability to swarm his opponents early and pour on the pressure makes him a solid pick for a first-round TKO.
Matt Schnell vs. Cody Durden (Bantamweight)
- Prediction: Matt Schnell by Submission, Round 2
Matt Schnell is one of the most dangerous submission artists in the bantamweight division, but his Achilles’ heel has been his chin. Schnell has been knocked out multiple times, and facing an aggressive wrestler like Cody Durden, he’ll need to avoid taking too much damage.
Cody Durden, on short notice, brings a wrestling-heavy style, looking to dominate opponents on the ground. However, Durden’s recent KO loss and lack of a full camp may leave him vulnerable in a fast-paced fight. Additionally, Durden has been submitted in the past, and Schnell’s submission game is elite.
If Durden can’t get Schnell out of there early, expect Schnell to capitalize on a mistake and lock in a submission. Durden’s cardio could also be an issue, and Schnell’s full camp should give him the advantage as the fight progresses.
Trevor Peek vs. Yanal Ashmouz (Lightweight)
- Prediction: Yanal Ashmouz by Decision
Trevor Peek is a wild card in the lightweight division. His unorthodox, aggressive brawler style can overwhelm lower-level competition, but it leaves him wide open for counters. Peek is all offense, with little regard for defense, which makes his fights exciting but risky.
Yanal Ashmouz is more calculated in his approach, relying on disciplined striking and strong grappling. While Ashmouz isn’t as flashy as Peek, his defensive awareness and ability to mix in takedowns give him an edge in a drawn-out fight. Peek’s reckless style may work against him as Ashmouz finds openings to exploit.
If Ashmouz can weather Peek’s early flurries and avoid getting sucked into a brawl, he should be able to win rounds with cleaner strikes and control. A decision victory for Ashmouz seems like the most likely outcome.
Prelims Breakdown and Predictions
RongZhu vs. Chris Padilla (Lightweight)
- Prediction: RongZhu by Decision
This matchup features two fighters trying to make a statement in the lightweight division. RongZhu is a powerful striker with a solid chin, while Chris Padilla is known for his grappling. However, Padilla has struggled to implement his game plan when faced with larger, more physical opponents.
Zhu’s size and striking will likely be too much for Padilla, especially if the fight stays on the feet. While Padilla could have some success on the ground, Zhu’s takedown defense has improved, and his ability to keep the fight standing should lead him to a decision victory.
Isaac Dulgarian vs. Brendon Marotte (Featherweight)
- Prediction: Isaac Dulgarian by TKO, Round 1
Isaac Dulgarian is a relentless wrestler with heavy ground-and-pound, and Brendon Marotte will need to avoid getting taken down if he wants to survive this fight. Dulgarian’s wrestling and top control are his bread and butter, and Marotte has struggled against grapplers in the past.
Expect Dulgarian to take the fight to the ground early and unleash his ground-and-pound. Marotte’s only path to victory is keeping the fight standing, but Dulgarian’s relentless pressure should lead to a first-round finish.
Felipe Dos Santos vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight)
- Prediction: Andre Lima by Decision
Felipe Dos Santos is a gritty fighter known for his toughness and willingness to engage in a brawl. Andre Lima, however, is a more technical striker with better footwork and fight IQ. Lima’s ability to maintain range and avoid unnecessary exchanges will be key in this fight.
Dos Santos’ path to victory involves dragging Lima into a firefight, but Lima’s patience and precision should allow him to win rounds and secure a decision.
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (Strawweight)
- Prediction: Jaqueline Amorim by Submission, Round 1
Amorim is one of the most dangerous submission artists in the strawweight division, and Vanessa Demopoulos has shown susceptibility to being taken down and controlled. Demopoulos is tough and can survive a beating, but Amorim’s submission game is too slick.
Expect Amorim to close the distance early, take the fight to the ground, and secure a submission within the first round.
**Yi Zha vs. Gabriel Santos (
Featherweight)**
- Prediction: Gabriel Santos by Decision
Gabriel Santos is a well-rounded fighter with solid striking and wrestling, while Yi Zha is a strong grappler with a grinding style. Santos’ ability to mix up his attacks and maintain a high pace should give him the edge in this fight.
Zha will likely look for takedowns, but Santos’ defensive wrestling and ability to strike at range will allow him to rack up points and win a decision.
Andre Petroski vs. Dylan Budka (Middleweight)
- Prediction: Andre Petroski by Submission, Round 1
Dylan Budka’s tough weight cut and conditioning concerns make this a dangerous fight for him against a grappler of Petroski’s caliber. Petroski’s ground game is elite, and he’ll likely take advantage of Budka’s compromised state early.
Expect Petroski to secure a takedown and quickly find a submission to finish the fight.
Zygimantas Ramaska vs. Nathan Fletcher (Featherweight)
- Prediction: Nathan Fletcher by Submission, Round 2
Fletcher’s submission game will be the key to victory here. Ramaska has shown decent striking, but Fletcher’s ability to dictate where the fight goes gives him a significant edge. Once Fletcher gets the fight to the ground, it’s only a matter of time before he locks in a submission.
Look for Fletcher to secure a submission in the second round.
Tonight’s Picks
Conclusion: Betting Insights
As always, betting on UFC fights requires a nuanced understanding of the stylistic matchups, recent form, and any x-factors such as weight cuts or short-notice replacements. This week’s card offers some great opportunities for bettors, with several fights offering clear favorites, while others could come down to key variables like durability and fight IQ.
Our key bets
for this week include:
- Sean Brady by Decision: His wrestling and durability make him a strong candidate to outlast Burns over five rounds.
- Steve Garcia by KO/TKO: Nelson’s weight issues give Garcia a significant edge in the power and cardio department.
- Matt Schnell by Submission: Durden’s defensive gaps and Schnell’s grappling experience make this an attractive underdog bet.
- Andre Petroski ITD: With Budka’s rough weight cut, expect Petroski to dominate early.
Stay tuned for more fight night updates and betting tips from HackTheSpread.com, and good luck on your wagers this weekend!